I have mostly been inaccurate in my market calls (at least in terms of magnitude), nonetheless, I am sticking to my short term call ( 2 weeks till the end of October ) that a short term correction or market pause is imminent. Specifically, I do not see the 3,200 barrier to be sustained during the above mentioned time period because of the upcoming mega IPOs. While the mainstream media has played up the new issues, they will be a terrible drain on liquidity.
Another reason I am bearish in the short term is that what we have been observing is a strong run up in penny stocks. This strongly suggests that participation is not from the smart money but rather from brokers trading from their own account. With the MAS widening the band that the Singapore dollar can trade against the US, it is my opinion that the speculative hot money will flow out. I myself was anticipating that the MAS hold it at the 1.35 level. With the Singapore dollar strengthening further, it will discourage funds from putting money here, even though borrowing costs are relatively low.
I am just guessing the short term direction because the 3,200 level got broken much later than most people expected. Furthermore, if the US Fed really does plan to print more money, it will have a positive near term effect on the markets, if the money is directed to the financial institutions, rather than the man on the street.
And I am not sure if you notice this, on one hand America is printing or wants to print more money while at the same time asking China to re-value its Yuan peg. This reeks of economic bullying while at the same time, an accurate reflection of how American politicians intend to solve their own problems - at the world's expense.
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