Reflecting on GE2011

For those who have followed my GE2011 posts, you will realize that the median prediction of between 55 and 60 percent exclusive was fairly accurate. This was considering that the final local vote count averaged 60.1 percent for the PAP.

I do not know the background of the voters, I can safely assume that almost all are Singaporeans and of the Internet savvy group. I used the median because several studies have shown that a large and diverse group of individuals can be used to gauge the outcome of an event, hence the use of poll research by the Australian company. Wisdom of the masses as they call it.

It is therefore likely that the Singapore stock market will perform slightly outside as predicted by my earliest poll. I did a quick check on my stocks and many of them have now started sinking into the red. This could be because the US stimulus is running its course. However, if the masses are to be believed, it is likely that there will be slight upside from hereon.

PAP to get between 55 and 60 percent of votes cast

I have closed the poll on the right to coincide with the actual end of polling day. 44 people have responded and based on the categories I have gave them, the results are:

Median (the middle): The PAP will win between 55 and 60 percent exclusive of the average votes cast

Mode (the most frequent): The PAP will win an average of between 50 and 55 percent exclusive of the average votes cast

Mean (or the simple average. please ask for methodology): The PAP will win about 57.7 percent of the average votes cast.

Based on my poll, I can conclude that the respondents of this poll generally believe that the PAP will not perform as well as the previous General Election in 2006. Then, there were fewer seats contested and the PAP won an average of 66.6 percent of the total votes cast. The reason I did not disclose that figure when I first started this poll was that I wanted to prevent readers from anchoring their opinion.

We will know the results over the course of the next 5-6 hours and if this poll is indicative of the sentiment on the ground, there will be some too close to call situations. I will do a review of the poll results against the actual election results. What I think at the moment is that the average votes secured by the PAP will be closest to the median of my poll - between 55 and 60 percent exclusive.

General Election 2011 forecast

From Straits Times, April 30, 2011

This table was part of the article on the Straits Times April 30, 2011. This is a very good table because it shows what the results may be, if there is a swing against the PAP.

The writer uses the results from 2006 where possible and uses 66.6% if there was a walkover, which I feel is fair enough.

What is interesting about this table is that with the exception of Bukit Panjang Single Member Constituency (SMC), a 5% swing against the PAP will mean them winning about 56.7% of the vote for most of the SMCs. For the Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs), such a scenario of swing votes means only East Coast  (57.9%) and Aljunied (50.1%) falling below the 60% mark.

My take is that once the elections are over, how the SMCs perform will determine whether again they will be spliced, and how GRCs perform will determine how  boundaries will be redrawn. Side note, this table will be a good companion as the votes are counted after polling day.

Midway through election campaigning

We are about midway through the election campaigning period. There will still be rallies up till Thursday night as Friday will be the cooling off period before you actually cast your votes. Please cast your vote in my latest poll if you have not, so that I can analyze it once the dust is settled.

82 of 87 Seats Contested

After some hi jinks, Nomination Day ended with 82 out of the 87 seats in Parliament being contested. There is only one Single Member Constituency (SMC) that will have a 3-cornered fight. The uncontested seat was Tanjong Pagar Group Representation Constituency (GRC), anchored by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.

The most notable nominations were Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong, who have opted to leave their SMC and contest in a GRC. It should be noted that both Opposition candidates have been MPs for more than two terms, which will entitle them a pension.

There was a surprise pull out in the People's Action Party Camp (PAP). Steve Tan from the NTUC, said that he has decided to pull out from the elections due to "personal reasons". Artistic director Baey Yam Kehng will move from Tanjong Pagar to the Tampines GRC, and surgeon Chia Shih Lu will take over Baey's slot.

It will be an exciting 9 days of campaigning. But I am of the opinion that the PAP will sweep all the seats in Parliaments once the votes are tallied. Both Low and Chiam's stepping out from their SMC is preemptive in my opinion. One, I believe that the residents of the SMC do want to have their estate upgraded. Secondly, I think that the two Opposition MPs intend to work the ground for the future GE.

The PAP government has had an impressive track record. Housing, transportation as well as economic development of the city-state are feathers in the cap. Nonetheless, there is that niggling feeling that the one-party dominance my be feeling the strain of globalisation.

How many votes will PAP win this time?

Singapore's Parliament was dissolved yesterday and May 7, 2011 has been decided as Polling Day. Given the current state of preparations, it is unlikely that the the erstwhile ruling political party, the People's Action Party (PAP), will be returned to power on Nomination Day, which is next Wednesday. Opposition parties are expected to contest in more than half the seats available in Parliament. This will be the second time in a row that the PAP will not be returned to power automatically on Nomination Day.

My question to readers is, how many percent of votes that have been cast, will be won by the PAP? Cast your "vote" in the poll on the right.

P.S.
My apologies for the typo in the poll. "een" should be read as "between". This is was due to poor cut and paste. I cannot change the spelling as readers have already voted.