Sold my KrisEnergy

I have not really been looking at the portfolio, until my friend asked me recently if I have been investing. It was when I realised that her clients that were invested in funds, were up 15%, while I was most likely down. Delfi, has swum against the rising Trump rally by halving in price. I took the opportunity to look at my portfolio, which comprised 6 companies. Now, on 1212, the portfolio shrank to 5 companies because I sold my shares in Krisenergy. Sensing an opportunity, I bought 20,000 shares in March 2015. However, the oil price environment remains low and I have sold them, taking a 82% hit in the process. Ouch!

In April 2017, I accepted the offer for my Super Group shares. As a result of this, along with the year's injection I am currently 39% cash and 61% in the remaining 5 companies' shares. My main target will be Delfi, as well as other companies close to their 52-week low.

Bought Super Group (The Singapore One)

Bought 8,000 shares of Super Group on Tuesday near closing time. Buying them ahead of their financial results next week, in case they surprise me. This averages down my cost of 22,000 shares SGD1.60 to SGD1.30 or about 45% underwater based on current market prices. 

Super pays out 50% of its net profit each year. Based on the third quarter results, earnings are likely to be 60-70% of FY2014. As such, the final dividend might just be 1 cents per share, making it 2 cents for the FY2015, giving it a current yield of 2.8%. Will be looking forward to the results next Tuesday.

Separately, I am also heading to KrisEnergy's investor event next Friday. Management will likely talk up its prospects and give operational updates. I might do a field report if I do get there. I am quite excited as it is the first time I am attending a event linked to my portfolio holdings. I have yet to attend an AGM over the past 6-8 years.

Portfolio Review 2015: Portfolio - 22.7% vs STI - 14.1%

After peaking in April, the Straits Times Index fell sharply in two distinct phases (Apr-Jul, Aug-Oct), ending the year at slightly below the 2,900 level, or 14.2% lower than where it started the year. There were many reasons offered for the weak markets ranging from weak oil price, terrorist threats, the end of quantitative easing and the hike in interest rates.

The portfolio lost a staggering 22.7%, making it the third year in a row that I have underperformed the STI. Excluding dividends, it would have lost 24.7%. The biggest percentage loser was KrisEnergy. The stock lost two-thirds of my purchase value because of the oil rout as well as my not subscribing to their rights. The biggest dollar loser was PetraFoods, shedding close to 12K. This favourite of mine is said to be affected by the weakness in sales to its key Indonesia market.

Colex was the only stock to register positive gains given the flight to safety. The garbage collector gained 15.4% the whole year or 3.2K in value. Smallest loser was Hong Leong Finance, losing 11.1% or 2K in value.

There were only 7 transactions for the whole of 2015, mostly at the start of the year. Auric Pacific, Etika and UOB-KayHian were offloaded. Hong Leong Finance and KrisEnergy were new stocks to the portfolio. In December, I added some more PetraFood to my portfolio.

KrisEnergy 42-for-100 rights issue:

KrisEnergy has called for cash. The company will issue 42 rights share for every 100 existing share at an issue price of SGD 0.385, representing a discount of 13.5% to its closing price when the announcement was made.

I can use my existing cash reserves to subscribe to the rights issue. I am entitled to 8,400 rights shares based on my current shareholding. But I am also in the red with my average purchase price 10 cents lower than the current market price. This would mean that should I subscribe to my entitlement, I would be putting in more capital at a time where markets are generally skittish, if not heading for the inevitable slump. At the same time, the oil and gas market looks with weak, with a recovery at least 1-2 years out. Russian bear.

Notwithstanding my vested interest, generally, I would not subscribe to rights issue because companies that do call for cash, tend to underperform the market, even after adjusting for dilution. I have only participated in one rights issue, that of GMG Global, and am still waiting for my super-sized returns after many years.

Having said that, I am very likely to subscribe to the rights issue because the alternative would mean either dilution or taking a hit by selling my shares. I will update on any future action.

The SGD10,000 bet on KrisEnergy

A trade becomes an investment. On Tuesday, I had keyed in two trades of 10 lots for KrisEnergy at 54 cents each, one after the other. The first ten lots was to be settled and the next ten lots, contra-ed off. However, the market for KrisEnergy shares on Friday (T+3) were less liquid than usual and bids had sank to 50 cents. Contra-ing the ten lots would result in a SGD 500+ immediate loss. I have settled the trade and it now goes to my investment portfolio which is worth SGD 118,100 as of Friday closing.

Buying KrisEnergy was always on the cards for at least three reasons. Firstly, I think crude oil (Brent) prices have reached a floor and a rebound is inevitable. The full effects of the current low oil price on earnings will be seen by the second quarter of 2015 but lower

10 lots of KrisEnergy and SGD 100,000 capital injection mark

To simplify my portfolio calculation for the rest of the year, I have assumed that I will inject capital of SGD 20,000 for 2015 and this will be factored into my performance calculations. This would mean topping up SGD 5,000 which I have yet to have. This would allow me to reach the round number of SGD 100,000 as well as calculated my yield-to cost. YTC would be calculated by dividing the dividends received in a calendar year over the accumulated capital at the start of the calendar year. 

I have also today, pulled the trigger and acquired 10 lots of KrisEnergy shares. The interesting point of this purchase is that I received from some of the counter parties of 100-600 shares. Why would any one key in such a small number of shares on offer? Will update accordingly over the next few days. 

Jan 2015 Portfolio update: Strong Start

I am posting this update since I woke up too early to start work but cannot go for a swim as the pool is closed for maintenance.

Compared to the end-December 2014 portfolio of SGD 115,736 (inclusive of capital injections), the portfolio at the end of January 2015 gained 3.2% month-on-month to SGD 119,486, of which SGD 11,462 was cash.

The top contributor was Colex whose share price appreciated 9.6% month-on-month. However, there is a large spread between the buy-sell price and the gains are unlikely to be realised.

F&N and Petra Foods were the next two top contributors. F&N's share price appreciated 8.1% likely on hopes the company will announce a good capital return on the forced-sale of its stake a Myanmar brewery. Like Colex, Petra Foods has a large spread between the buy-sell price.

Super Group was the only loser of the six-stock portfolio, shedding 2.6% in share price. I remain hopeful that the company will post stronger earnings once the political situation in Thailand improves, although I am not going to average down.

I am eyeing KrisEnergy and Colex and potential targets to utilise the free cash.