The S&P500 index started the year at 1115.10 points and ended at 1257.88 or 12.8 per cent higher. Despite the possibility of a double dip recession, the American stock market managed to chalk up positive gains on the account of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve, notwithstanding the lack of jobs created.
Over in Singapore, the story was much brighter. Not only did the economy surge by double-digits, unemployment rate was also supposedly at its lowest. The Straits Times Index started the year at 2897.62 and added 10.1 percent to close 3190.04.
If you were able to recall, many analysts were very bullish at the start of the year, calling that that 3,200 mark to be easily broken by the middle of the year. The STI only traded in that region for the month of November and has since been weak. I myself was calling 2010 a year that the market will move up a little and this has been accurate to the extent that I did not give specifics.
For 2011, if this is part of a long term secular bull run, I am guessing that the STI will move up 5-8 percent. At the moment I can envision plenty of scenarios that will cause the stock market to trade weaker - China raising interest rates, America raising interest rates (very unlikely), Eurozone meltdown II - but I am a net optimist because there is just too much money avoiding the developed countries. The inflow of capital to Singapore and the region will be the main driver of higher asset prices. That said, I do hope that the MAS increase interest rates to prevent the US dollar from slipping to ridiculous levels against the Singapore dollar.
How did the portfolio do?