Thursday, May 14, 2015

200,000 page views

Close to five years after setting up this blog, I finally managed to hit the 200,000 page views levels. While not all page views may be unique, I do feel a slight sense of satisfaction. In terms of Adsense revenue, I think it has amounted to only SGD 300-400 and that is definitely an aspect I should improve upon.

Thank you all for closely following my blog! If you could, please share my blog with your friends through facebook or even whatsapp!

It has been a learning journey the whole while. Initially, there was the ChannelNewsAsia Forum where I could share my posts but that was closed down during one of Singapore's general elections. Now, most of the traffic is directed wholly by the Singapore Investment Blogger page.

The top two posts with the most page views surprised me because they were not investment related. In top spot was the post on my Taiwan trip: and this was followed by the post on my kick scooter: Both these posts are relatively new and showed me the importance of writing on topics that could reach a bigger audience as opposed to the narrow investing community. 

Once, thank you very much for reading this blog. May you have a great investment journey ahead!

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

An injury to the body and wallet

I mentioned fleetingly in earlier posts that I had picked up an injury. I broke my collar bone in September 2014 in a football game. I tried to jump over my incoming goalkeeper but my trailing leg caught his. As a result, I fell into the synthetic turf like how a cyclist would, having been flung his bike and into the ground. 

Not realising what had happened, I slowly dragged myself out of the field. I thought I might have dislocated my shoulder and so I tried to rotate my left arm. That was a wrong move. The broken ends of my collar bone (as I would find out later) rubbed each other resulting in a sharp pain that caused me to vomit and almost blackout. I laid on the sidelines for a long while before packing up my kit and making my way to the hospital.

I decided against getting an ambulance since I was not bleeding and still conscious. However, hailing a cab was very difficult. I was half naked and could not call-book a cab. This was made more trying when other people "stole" my cab, not realising I was in a great deal of discomfort. When I did get into the cab, I told the driver to send me to TTSH A&E. He had suggested that I go CGH, since it was closer to where I was. However, I told him to go TTSH as it was closer to where I live.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Fear of heights: Reviewing my 2014 forecast

Financial bloggers like to make predictions because their followers like to read them.

Since it is almost free, I decided to gaze into the crystal ball made the following prediction on 18 Jan 2014:

3 Month Outlook: Bear market and volatility
6 Month Outlook: Bear market and volatility
12 Month Outlook: Recovery

Based on the chart below, I got the 3 month outlook partially right. The market was volatile from January to April 2014, with two corrections but it ended higher overall. 

I got the 6 months outlook wrong. It was pretty much a bullish recovery after early February, if you look at the January to July 2014 period. 

However, I got the overall trend right for the full 12 months. That said, from July 2014 to January 2015, the market was very volatile, with at least 4-5 dips.

Looking ahead, I managed to get the 3 month outlook for my latest forecast right and I expect the bull market to continue until the end of the year.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Portfolio inches up 1.0% month-on-month

The portfolio ended the quarter on a positive note. The end-March value was SGD125,567 of which SGD 6,000 was in cash. The portfolio was 1.0% higher month on month and 4% higher on a year-to-date basis.

For the month of March, GMG Global and Super Group were the top performers adding 18.6% and 24.7% in share price respectively. Both companies reported poor results that were within expectations. Perhaps the worst is over for the two erstwhile battered down companies.
I added 20,000 shares of KrisEnergy to my portfolio. The oil company’s share took a big hit initially but with the airstrikes in Yemen, fears prompted the price of crude to rally and in turn boosting KrisEnergy’s share price.

I think this market still has some momentum. There has yet been an increase in IPO activity nor has there been market euphoria. Therefore, I think I will stay invested in the market and pickup any dividends that is being proposed.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Don't buy shipbuilders, oil and gas services companies!

If someone were to ask me, whether do I think it is a good time now to pickup shares in Nam Cheong or Ezion, I would definitely say no. Let me explain.

Firstly, demand for their products and services has almost become non-existent. The was a boom in new offshore supply vessels and Nam Cheong probably benefited over the last five years leading to its public listing. However, with deliveries still taking place globally amidst the low oil price, there has been no new orders. For Ezion, the demand for its offshore maintenance services is recurring but I believe several of the oil and gas companies have announced budget cuts and will try to manage their operating expenses by either changing their maintenance regimes or asking for lower dayrates.

Secondly, there has been an oversupply situation in both the products and services markets. All the vessels that have been ordered over the last five years are coming online and this will depress the charter rates these vessels can obtain. When charter rates are lower, there is less incentive to order new vessels as the rate of return on these vessels have fallen. The same would apply to Ezion. There is an increase in the number of vessels, the lift boats, which can support offshore maintenance work.