Saturday, February 11, 2017

The great recovery that you probably missed

In 2016, I did close to nothing with my portfolio other than increase my position in Super Group in February and March. One year later, after a very politicised American Presidential Elections, the Straits Times Index has recovered strongly moving a upwards from February, with an initial speed bump.  This is in line with what I had forecast along with my spot on prediction that Donald Trump would win the elections. 

I do not think the market is frothy yet. Once Saudi Aramco manages to IPO, we should see some mega deals although there is nothing in the pipeline for Singapore. My guess is 3-6 months from the Saudi Aramco IPO, we should see a market top that will follow a massive correction. In this scenario, I am not sure how Donald Trump can make america great again.

Dartslive Super League Season 13 GAME ON!

It has been slightly more than a year since I bought my first soft tip darts set. On Monday, I will begin my third Dartslive Singapore league. It will be my second time playing the Super League format.

The first time I played it, I averaged 67.2 points per round over 69 legs of 01 games. For the coming season, I hope to achieve some award pins and improve on my match play mentality. Dartslive Singapore awards pins (lapel pins) if you achieve a certain number of "specials" such as 10 hat tricks (2 in the bull) or a white horse (2 different trebles in a game of cricket. By match play mentality, I mean achieving my non-competition averages. When I first started, I initially thought I would bust my averages - playing significantly above my past 30 game average. That did not happen. Well, I have got 14 fixtures to discover my form.

Anyway, here are some photos of my darts. These are 95% tungsten Unicorn Phase 5 Mirage. These are the 18 grams version with a natural finish I bought them online from A180, a darts retailer from the UK. I bought them online because most Singapore shops don't carry Unicorn for some strange reason.






Thursday, January 5, 2017

Portfolio Review 2016: Portfolio + 28.0% vs STI - 0.2%

The Straits Times Index ended 2016 at the same level it started. After dipping to 2,500 in the January and February, the index recovered to 2,880. This was despite a Trump election victory, which many in US media and Asia expected an end-of-the-world scenario.

The portfolio gained 28.0%, ending the three year streak of underperformance against the STI. Excluding dividends, it would have gained 24.4%. Most of my holdings advanced in price. This was unsurprising given their previous years losses. The biggest percentage loser was Hong Leong Finance. The finance stock lost 8.2% in price. This was followed by F&N, down 2.8%.

Colex and Super Group each post slightly more than 50% year on year increase in share price. Colex remains a very thinly traded stock. Super Group on the other hand, was boosted by the acquisition of the Dutch firm JDE. This will eventually lead to the privatisation of the company.

The portfolio cost now stands at 111.5K and I am in the black by 14%. I collected dividends of 2.3k, excluding the capital reduction paid out by Delfi, and this implies a yield-to-cost of 2.0% which is poor. For CY2017, my yield to cost will likely drop given the poor outlook and that Super Group is put in the freezer.


For CY2017, I intend to buy another 10k plus any remaining cash in the portfolio, just before or after Chinese New Year. I will also need to be on the lookout for places to park the monies eventually received from the delisting of Super Group. I expect the market to go up by at least 5% 12 months down the road. That said, I expect the local economy to be very weak in the coming 6 months. The oil and gas and property sector are not doing well and I cannot see any drivers of growth coming from international trade. 

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Gone Girl: GMG Global and Super Group

I finally submitted my acceptance of the Halcyon Agri offer for GMG Global shares. This will result in me having odd lot shares of the enlarged group, with fractional entitlements being rounded down. This leaves me slightly worse off. I do not have a significant investment in GMG Global and I am content to let the share ride into the sunset or sunrise, the latter being preferred.

As for Super Group, the new offer by the Dutch company will only take me to my breakeven point. I have been acquiring the company's shares since 2014. The bonus issue was supposed to bring me joy but alas.

With two more months of the calendar year, I am now tasked to look for suitable stocks to deploy the cash that will be freed up from the Super Group offer.


Saturday, August 6, 2016

Why this Singaporean thinks Donald Trump will be President of the United States (POTUS)

First off, I do not support either candidates for POTUS. My interest in the US elections are the outcome, namely, who gets elected to be POTUS. I do have wager with a friend on the outcome of the elections. Furthermore, just because I think Trump will win, does not mean I think Trump should win. Meaning, I do not agree with the things he says or the way he does things.

I think Trump will win because of his skills as a public speaker. Some of us will be critical about the things he says at rallies, but he does connect with most Americans. He may seem to alienate non-White voters but that is because his speeches are often contorted by the US mainstream media. The US MSM is owned by Wall Street, who want Hillary to be POTUS. Hillary's connection with Wall Street is a fact that other Democrats, such as Bernie Sanders and his supporters, are well aware of and have documented.

Why is it I think Hillary is weak as a public speaker that I do not think she will win in November? I asked those around me who watched the conventions, which was better, the Republican National Convention (RNC) or the Democratic National Convention (DNC). They, mostly women, said it was the DNC. The DNC has the Obamas and Bill Clinton speaking and they were in good form. There were balloons and katy Perry! However, they added that Hillary Clinton pales in comparison to them. Something about her that makes them feel suspicious of Hillary. She is very cold and clinical.

I have said it elsewhere, Bernie Sanders would be a better candidate against Trump. He may seem to have the support of only university kids, but I think he voices out the issues that Middle America is facing. At the issues levels, he will give Trump a good fight. However, as we have found out, Hillary is the preferred candidate from the time Obama was elected and re-elected as President. She is the establishment's choice.

With less than 100 days to the elections, polls suggest that Hillary has an advantage over Trump. Interestingly, telephone polls put Hillary more ahead of Trump than in online polls. In online polls such as the Reuters/Ipsos, I think Americans are less shy to say they will vote for Trump.

Trump will continue to face challenges from being himself as well as the US press, but if he avoids major faux pas, he will win. Hillary on the other hand faces the challenge of facing the American public continually without the Obamas pitching in beside her. We might see her being strained from all the travelling, possibly affecting her already poor health.