Thursday, December 31, 2009

2009's Loser Stocks

I have used my DBS Vickers screener and compiled a list of "losers"- stocks that had you put money at the start of the year, you would still have ended up losing money despite the magnificent bull run. Just take note that the list is correct as of yesterday and I am not sure how DBS Vickers calculates the price change.

On a side note, there are 13  IPOs and 15 suspended stocks. this shows that buying IPO and holding is one of the most terrible way of investing. no prizes for guessing that most of the suspended stocks were S-chips with few exceptions. There were also some Preference Shares so do read carefully.

Will they be next year's winners?

Friday, December 25, 2009

2009 Review

2009 Review

Stocks that I have sold
Singapore Petroleum Company
China Milk Products
Genting Singapore

Original Purpose of the blog
To see if my portfolio can beat the STI (even though it is not the appropriate benchmark)
To see if I can double my investible capital $10,000 by end 2009, excluding dividend, after deducting brokerage

New Mission for the New Year
To track the growth in market value as at 31Dec-09 to 31 Dec-10
To see when is the exact date that the $14,000 grows into $28,000 after deducting for brokerage.

Stocks that I am currently holding not, in chronological order 

Action Asia
Small Malaysian company manufacturing the entertainment sets you see in most cars. I bought it because I has attractive valuations. It has the combination of low PE and good earnings growth. To bump it up, it has applied for TDRs and I think that is positive step even though the new shares issued is dilutive.

Its share price has held up well and will have to wait for its TDRs to start trading in Taiwan as well as for its FY results to be out before doing a more thorough review.

Asiatic Group
I love the idea that it is generating electricity in Cambodia. It will take some time to figure out the real contribution of power generation to its top and bottom line. Financing is also an issue. Nonetheless, it has secured good partnership and it is a stock worth one year's wait to see if its potential is revealed.

Share price has held up well and has heavy trading on some days which make me wonder a bit due to the small public float. Financial performance wise it is slightly below expectation but I will wait for a new set of results before deciding to do anything else.

One of my speculative stocks. I think it is the only bio tech stock in Singapore. i am not certain that it is worth investing. my judgment tells me that its presence in china and its superior trial data makes it a good bet, till at least when there is a better drug eluting stent to siphon earnings from its cash machine. please note that it has bonds due to refinance in November. 
One of the first few stocks that I have bought. I still like it and although I do not see the possibility that the company will declare dividends, it will be profitable for the coming full year. It has managed to avoid financing issues by issuing new set of convertible bonds.

Elite KSB
Very thinly traded stock. I like it because it is one of those boring stocks. heck, it is the only listed chicken processor that i know off. nonetheless, i know that the upside might be very limited. I see 26cents as the upper threshold. good management with clever acquisition.

Still remains very thinly traded and its share price has hardly moved anywhere. I think I will get some more lots in this company so that I can make it 10 lots in case anything, possibly good happens.

Etika International
Should have seen it earlier. took notice when i realised that Wilmar linked PPB group has a 5% stake in the company. thinly traded is also an issue but its revenue and bottom line look to grow exponentially as it tries to enter new markets.

I have a feeling that this will be a multi bagger despite having risen so much in the past year. But the funny thing is that the company has yet to announce the book closure date for its dividends. Will remain vested in this company for a long time.

FJ Benjamin
I borrowed $500 from my friend to buy 4 lots. I bought it blindly to follow cramer's advice of getting a retailer. in my opinion, its fortune traces the general stock market. i wish i had bought more of it but what it has done for me is sufficient.

After a brief jump in its share price somewhere in the middle of the year, it has rested at its current price for a while. I am keeping it till it gives me the signal that the economy will collapse again as I believe that this retail stock is a leading indicator.

GMG Global
this is my cyclical story. i like it for the fact that it has presence in Africa. it has had a rights issue and its share price seems to be stuck at $0.105-0.110 range. My guess is that it is a stock that will have many cycles and hence opportunities to get in and out.

Mildly disappointed with this stock and I think it could have been a mistake to pump in my money when I could have gotten out. I worked out my calculation and it seems to show that unless it can figure a way to double its earnings despite only a brief recovery in rubber prices, then its existing EPS might not be justified.

Another speculative stock. It is less cyclical now and has that certain vibe around it. this recent acquisition will be held on for a year as well. its technology is good. it might not be the best but due to the fact that defence agencies do not like to change the platforms, should mean repeat customers for its intelligent vision technologies.

This stock taught me the lesson not to buy a stock just because you read it on the news etc. I had the chance to unload it but my personality does not allow me to hold a stock for a short period. As such, now I am holding on to a stock that does not really move. Will have to wait to the new year and hope (which is not the correct thing to do) that it might be bought over.

TPV Tech
manufacturing LCD monitor and television. I hope it does not become another RCA. will have to watch and monitor the trends in television sales. the challenge from plasma is not there but LED becoming cheaper might give it a run for its money.

I am sitting on a paper gain on this counter. It had to one point risen to $1 then dropped back down when news that its supply chain my encounter some snags. I am keeping it because I cannot see an economic recovery without people getting more LCD TV.

I had only the money to buy this financial. I think im going to keep it for a while for its attractive dividend yield.

I really wonder why this stock does not appreciate in price like its peer Kim Eng. However, I sense that there will be a handsome dividend payout come the February.

Christmas Day

I will post my 2009 review and mission statements in Janaury, when i see how much goes to my bank account. Right now, i am very focused on putting only $4000 in the market for 2010 and i have already used $1478 for Action Asia so that means i have about $2500 left..

Apparently, i was very lucky and then my subsequent purchases have not risen. i will conclude albeit prematurely that buying stratech was the worst investment. not only has it not declared dividends, the day after its article was published on the Edge, it has since not touch $0.06 in trading.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Understanding Our Own Humanity

taken from

Are we our own worst enemies when it comes to investing? The answer seems to be a resounding “Yes”, if we are to believe the work done by psychologists in the field of behavioural finance. To put it very briefly, people and as a result investors, tend to exhibit cognitive biases such as over confidence, biased judgements, herd mentality and loss aversion, that impair their ability to make sound investment decisions.

Do check out the article by clicking on the link.

Personally, I think that it is good to understand why we make so much investment mistakes. By cutting down the mistakes, we increase our odds of making money in the long run. Remember, making mistakes are alright as long as you learn from it.

Also, costs are very important. If you factor in the investment that you could have made from the transaction fees incurred, it will make a significant difference in the long run.

i will talk more about long run investing when i do a review for stocks for the long run book again, in case you missed it the first time.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Portfolio Blindness

the portfolio did not move much. i am contemplating getting 13 lots of elite ksb... but the stock has not move much and this will be my third buy in, increasing my total transaction costs. However, finding the funds for that 13 lots will be a problem for me.... to be continued

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Bought Action Asia

Bought 10 lots of Action Asia at $0.145. I think that will screw up my calculations for a while. so for prudence, i will still talk about the portfolio but ex-Action Asia. Will do a separate brief on this company later.

with that purchase, i think i will have lesser ammo for my next year portfolio. I am looking at $4,000 injection for 2010 and I have used up $1450. I am also considering getting some Elite KSB even though i know the transaction costs have come 3 time. maybe i should get 13 to make it 20 lots in total.

meanwhile you guys can check out . There is a post on KS Energy, Novo group as well as China XLX. The write up on the 3 companies warrant a closer look.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

It's been a while

so sorry guys as it has been a while since i last posted. was flooded with work and also was out of the country for a short getaway.

from the screen shot above, the STI rose by 2.3%, more than my portfolio's 0.1%. it seems like it is going to take forever for the portfolio to reach $20,000. the bright side is that etika has declared a $0.01 dividend, which i will use it in the coming year to add on the my stock holdings.

i will do a thorough review of the portfolio by the end of the year and possibly suggest themes for next year. right now, i do hope that you guys have stayed invested since like who knows when.

i read that activity is the worst thing you can do to your portfolio due to the transaction costs involved.

on an unrelated note, i bought teh hooi ling's remaining volumes for "show me the money". after a careful reading, i realise that there are some things that need to be critically examined. for instance, when she looks at short term trading strategy, she always assume 1% transaction costs. however i believe that that amount understates real transaction costs for trades of smaller nominal quantity.

also, her favourite low P/B method stock strategy is benchmarked incorrectly in my opinion because some of the stocks are not STI component stocks. however it should be noted that there is a recent piece where her focus was on the component stocks and i feel that the returns benchmarked were more justifiable.

nonetheless, i still think that she makes a lot of sense but just becareful of anyone, yours truly included. because ultimately, we can only suggest and not hold responsibility for your end action.