Portfolio Review 2017: Portfolio -0.9% vs STI +18.1%

The Straits Times Index ended 2017 18% higher than the start of the year. Carrying over the momentum since the US elections, the index surged during 2017 to end 2017 at 3,403.

The portfolio declined marginally weighed down heavily by the continued decline in the share price of Delfi as well as the fact I had a good deal of cash on the sidelines. Excluding dividends, my portfolio would have lost 2.4%

The biggest percentage loser was KrisEngergy, declining 48.6% in price until the point I disposed of my entire holdings. The company has announced it may go ahead with plans offshore Cambodia and this might result in more cash need. I will be looking at another entry into the stock nonetheless. Delfi was the next biggest percentage loser at -35.6% but its impact on my portfolio was strongest due to its higher dollar value share. I have averaged down on this counter and hopefully it will have upside in 2018. Hong Leong Finance and F&N increased its share price by 27.6% and 23.4% respectively, riding on the secular bull run.

The portfolio cost now stands at 121.5k and I am in the black by 18.1%. I collected 2.3k of dividends and this implies an yield-to-cost of 1.8% which is poorer than the previous year. For CY2018, I intend to inject at most 8.5k into the portfolio to make my cost a round 130k.

I expect the market to top in the coming 6 months before we see a correction and a short down trend. While the newspaper headlines suggest that the local economy is doing well, I think these are false indicator. Expect a bumpy ride in the second half of 2018.

Portfolio Review 2016: Portfolio + 28.0% vs STI - 0.2%

The Straits Times Index ended 2016 at the same level it started. After dipping to 2,500 in the January and February, the index recovered to 2,880. This was despite a Trump election victory, which many in US media and Asia expected an end-of-the-world scenario.

The portfolio gained 28.0%, ending the three year streak of underperformance against the STI. Excluding dividends, it would have gained 24.4%. Most of my holdings advanced in price. This was unsurprising given their previous years losses. The biggest percentage loser was Hong Leong Finance. The finance stock lost 8.2% in price. This was followed by F&N, down 2.8%.

Colex and Super Group each post slightly more than 50% year on year increase in share price. Colex remains a very thinly traded stock. Super Group on the other hand, was boosted by the acquisition of the Dutch firm JDE. This will eventually lead to the privatisation of the company.

The portfolio cost now stands at 111.5K and I am in the black by 14%. I collected dividends of 2.3k, excluding the capital reduction paid out by Delfi, and this implies a yield-to-cost of 2.0% which is poor. For CY2017, my yield to cost will likely drop given the poor outlook and that Super Group is put in the freezer.

For CY2017, I intend to buy another 10k plus any remaining cash in the portfolio, just before or after Chinese New Year. I will also need to be on the lookout for places to park the monies eventually received from the delisting of Super Group. I expect the market to go up by at least 5% 12 months down the road. That said, I expect the local economy to be very weak in the coming 6 months. The oil and gas and property sector are not doing well and I cannot see any drivers of growth coming from international trade. 

Stock portfolio posts 16.8% YTD returns

Despite Brexit, my stock portfolio managed to post a year-to-date increase of 16.8% compared to the Straits Times Index's 2%. The portfolio increased from SGD105,200 at the end of 2015, to SGD122,900 at the end of 1 July 2016.

My top performers in terms of dollar contribution were Colex Holdings and Delfi (former Petra), each adding around SGD8,000 to the portfolio. F&N was the worst performer in terms of dollar contribution, losing me SGD910.

Singapore stock rally helps lift Q1 performance

The Singapore stock rally in late-February and early-March helped lift the portfolio. My basket of shares gained 14% (inclusive of dividends received) compared to three months ago, compared to the STI, which fell 1.6% during the same period. Transactions were limited to the purchase of 12,000 Super Group shares over on two occasions, as well as, the receipt of F&N dividends. There is about SGD220 in free cash.

GMG Global saw the sharpest percentage share price gains. The rubber planter grew 90% mostly on news of the merger with Halycon Agri. Petra Foods was distant second, rising 33% during the same period, mostly on very thin trading volumes. Dollar-wise, Petra added the most to my portfolio, increasing it by SGD7,600. F&N was the only counter that failed to register gains.

In line with my March forecast, I expect the road to recovery ahead, to be less bumpy. I do get the sense that while the depressing macro news - recession, unemployment, falling housing prices - has just started being reported, the worst (in terms of emotions) is over. I will be building up cash though, as it is a goal that I have been neglecting.

Portfolio inches up 1.0% month-on-month

The portfolio ended the quarter on a positive note. The end-March value was SGD125,567 of which SGD 6,000 was in cash. The portfolio was 1.0% higher month on month and 4% higher on a year-to-date basis.

For the month of March, GMG Global and Super Group were the top performers adding 18.6% and 24.7% in share price respectively. Both companies reported poor results that were within expectations. Perhaps the worst is over for the two erstwhile battered down companies.
I added 20,000 shares of KrisEnergy to my portfolio. The oil company’s share took a big hit initially but with the airstrikes in Yemen, fears prompted the price of crude to rally and in turn boosting KrisEnergy’s share price.

I think this market still has some momentum. There has yet been an increase in IPO activity nor has there been market euphoria. Therefore, I think I will stay invested in the market and pickup any dividends that is being proposed.

Jan 2015 Portfolio update: Strong Start

I am posting this update since I woke up too early to start work but cannot go for a swim as the pool is closed for maintenance.

Compared to the end-December 2014 portfolio of SGD 115,736 (inclusive of capital injections), the portfolio at the end of January 2015 gained 3.2% month-on-month to SGD 119,486, of which SGD 11,462 was cash.

The top contributor was Colex whose share price appreciated 9.6% month-on-month. However, there is a large spread between the buy-sell price and the gains are unlikely to be realised.

F&N and Petra Foods were the next two top contributors. F&N's share price appreciated 8.1% likely on hopes the company will announce a good capital return on the forced-sale of its stake a Myanmar brewery. Like Colex, Petra Foods has a large spread between the buy-sell price.

Super Group was the only loser of the six-stock portfolio, shedding 2.6% in share price. I remain hopeful that the company will post stronger earnings once the political situation in Thailand improves, although I am not going to average down.

I am eyeing KrisEnergy and Colex and potential targets to utilise the free cash.

Singapore stocks analysis: No correlation between individual stock returns and holding period yet

The chart below shows the holding period and return on capital (inclusive of dividends) of the 17 stocks that I have bought and sold, excluding short term trades. The actual returns can be found here. Using Excel, I ran a regression of the two variables and found that there is almost no correlation between the two of them (low R-square of 0.001).

From an academic standpoint, my results do not contradict the conventional wisdom that the you can get good returns when you hold stocks over a long period. This is because the defining study, Stocks for the Long Run,  uses a 30 year period and a very big basket of shares. This is in contrast to the fact that share that I have held longest is at most 6 years and that most of them have small market capitalisation.

Portfolio -1.6% vs STI

I am writing this as I prepare for my third flight since the last blog post. I will write more about the trips to South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong later in December. 

Despite the gains to the Straits Times Index (STI) over the past few months, the portfolio remains weak due to the slide in Super Group's share price. My fully invested in cash portfolio is down 1.6% against the STI on a YTD basis.

Not included in the portfolio for the year are my additional purchases of Super Group during the year and F&N late in November. Including these purchases, the dollar value of the portfolio touches the SGD 100,000 mark which is one of those milestones in an investor's life. Month on month, the portfolio did chalk up some gains but were not enough to reverse the losses. Interestingly, I have observed that my defensive stocks Auric Pacific and UOB Kay-Hian have each shed about 20-30 cents each since the start of the year. Because my cost of purchasing them is low, I have thought it nice to keep them for dividends. However, if the decline is a leading signal of greater difficulties, perhaps it is time to cash out.

The portfolio has done horribly so far in 2014 and it will be third year out of six year that I under perform the benchmark. There are many learning points and worthy of an lengthy reflection post. 

Down but not out

The portfolio shrivelled in terms of stock value due to the SGD 0.30 distribution by Envictus (Formerly Etika). At the end of August, the value of shares was worth a total SGD 67,500. If I were to include capital injections but exclude dividends received, I would be 14% down year-to-date. Including all the free cash and dividends however, I am 4.5% up year-to-date, or 0.6 percentage points weaker than the STI during the same period.

The under performance  was not the reason I have disappeared. I was away for NS ICT for most of the month, staying in camp or at home resting when the chance is given. It was meaningful time spent probably because it is only my second call up!

Anyway, I will use the time from now to the end of the year to scrutinise or clean up the portfolio. I have been neglecting them for a very long time due to so many distractions and commitment. One thing will definitely do is clean up on those stocks that have lost a lot in terms of value, specifically Wilmar Internation and Biosensors. I probably bought Wilmar at the peak while for Biosensors, I sat on the stock's price escalation for way too long. Some of the penny stocks may have to follow as well. Furthermore, I have a considerable amount of cash sitting on the sidelines and I loathe to channel it to other accounts. Research on stocks is way over due. One of the more interesting things I discovered was that VICOM is now SGD 6.19. I wonder how many people bought and sat on this stock since March 2009!

Portfolio computation error

Due to a computation error, where I included the value of Noble shares I had already sold, I probably overstated the returns on my portfolio. Based on what I began with in 2014, the current portfolio should comprise SGD 82,328 in stock, SGD 7,427 in free cash, and an additional SGD 1,146 in dividends receved. This would mean that the year-to-date performance is 4.3%, 3.0% without the dividends. The portfolio underperforms the benchmark Straits Times Index.

Super Group rebound lifts July portfolio to +10.9% YTD

I really have to apologise for the lack of posts on the portfolio. This is not caused by a total meltdown of the individual stocks. Including dividends but excluding the May purchase of Super Group, the portfolio inched up 2.4% bringing year-to-date gains to 10.9%. The rebound in the price of Super Group as well as Envictus (former Etika) contributed to most of the capital appreciation.

About six months ago, I forecast that we would still be in the midst of a bear market with plenty of volatility. This proved to be wrong as the Straits Times Index has gained 5.5% on a year-to-date basis ending 23 July and is at its highest level of 2014. This is despite all macro indicators suggesting it should be otherwise.

I will be going for in-camp training soon and that will mean a lot of time away from the computer. This also means fewer postings. However, after the in-camp training, I should be going on a fair bit of vacation. More travel posts on the way!

I have about SGD 7,000 free cash waiting to be invested. However, I have run out of ideas. This is not helped by a toppish feeling market. May be it is time for me to unload on some of the stocks that have very small dollar value. This is a theme that I have been running with for some time.

Elsewhere, I just found out that a new BTO will be built very close to my future BTO. That is very annoying because it will be blocking whatever view I have left. I do pity those already staying in the surroundings for they have to bear with even more construction works. 

Portfolio edges up 1.8 per cent (without dividends)

The portfolio grew 1.8% in value compared to the end of last year, excluding dividends.

Is the commodity boom over?

I took a look at my portfolio as was not happy with what I saw. Despite a strong run up on the Straits Times Index to close to 3,500, my stocks have not been moving likewise, particularly Noble Group and Wilmar International, which are down more than 10 per cent since I bought. My urge to sell stocks in the commodity sector is driven by the negative academic readings on the sector as a result of me preparing for my school essay. I guess the commodity super cycle has to end some where than continue in perpetuity. Perhaps I will also sell those stocks which are worth less than SGD 3,000 in total, to make the portfolio efficient. But I will have to come back to the issue of what stock I should buy, and this perplexes me a lot. Stay tuned.

Not many thoughts on the stock market

Juggling between work, life, and two modules for Master's is really very time consuming. On the work side, the pressure is just piling up because instead of being able to update my report, I have been required to provide support for other team mates. This is not helped by the fact that I tend to be less disciplined in my research. On the social life front, it has been relatively quiet but I keep getting dragged out on the weekends and this leaves me tired and little time to catch up with other stuff. Classes are also taking up time because they just mean pushing back work time to prepare for proposals.

The stock market has not been bothering me though. Although the American market looks strong, the STI's gains has been modest with a lot of penny rotation. Month-on-month, my portfolio shed 2.3% to SGD 73,913 (inclusive of investable cash and dividends) compared to the 1.3% gain on the STI. Wilmar remains the leading loser of my holdings, currently at SGD 3.51 compared to the SGD 3.90 when I bought a stake.

At the macroeconomic front, there is a lot of bad news for Singapore in terms of exports and manufacturing output. Nevertheless, I think 2013 will be an up 10% year.

Portfolio down 3.7 per cent; weighed down by Wilmar

The portfolio lost 3.7 per cent month-on-month compared to the STI's haircur of 0.4 per cent. My portfolio was weighed heavily by big losses on Wilmar which I had bought at aound SGD 3.88.

It is again testing times for me as I face the challenge of juggling work with school and maintaining a normal fitness and social regime. For school, I am thinking of doing two modules instead of one. This is because I need to clear the modules quick so that I won't extend my stay in post grad. At work, I am tasked with new reports and there is a very sharp learning curve which I hope to overcome in the next two weeks. Hopefully the portfolio does not crumble due to the neglect.

Not enough time

I have not been spending enough time tracking my stocks. The months of September and October have been so busy for me that I do not even have enough time to spend on my hobby. I guess this is a good thing in some ways. Firstly, I have developing my skills by reading as well as enrolling for a masters programme. Although it is early days, I do feel that the masters has not been as stimulating as I had hoped for. Secondly, I have been spending time either with my loved ones, family or exercising. Lastly, it just occurred to me that I  went to Japan in July and spent a good 10 days there. I will have to do a write up on it then.

What is not so good is that I am not able to monitor the performance of the portfolio as accurately or reliably as I had hoped for. Well, you cannot always win them all. 

My Holdings As Of February

The chart above shows my holding based on their current market value. It shows clearly how concentrated I am to just a few stocks, although there are 12 names on that list. The top three holdings - Etika, GMG and Elite KSB - make up slightly more than half my portfolio value. Overall, I have a good mix of cyclical and defensive stocks.

Stocks that I would dispose of would be the three smallest holdings - China Animal Healthcare, TPV and Stratech - because it is not effective holding on to them. That is unless I average up and the prime candidate would be TPV. I am getting jittery over China Animal because its share price does not seem to move in line with the broader penny rally.

The column chart above shows the profit per share in absolute terms as well as in percentage terms. Biosensors is the only "multi-bagger" with slightly more than 200% gains and there are four stocks that are in the red. I will probably overlay and updated chart with this to form my next commentary. This second chart shows just how average I am, but I have managed to avoid big losses.

SGD 30,000 invested level

Using some creative accounting, after subscribing to GMG Global's rights issues (20,000) and some excess (2,000), I have invested  SGD 30,000 of my own money in the market. "My own money" excludes those money from sales and dividends. My current portfolio is estimated to worth just under SGD 40,000. That means if I were to cash in everything, that would mean that my profit would be about SGD 9,500 after deducting the commissions.

This does not look like a good return, considering the effort put in. Oh well, I think it is time i started watching the portfolio carefully and trim the weeds. Comments please!

Portfolio sinks on rights issues, penny plays

I realised how difficult it was to show what was the current score of the portfolio and decided to lump all the stocks that were held since the start of the year with those that were recently acquired. It does not look good.

YTD unrealized loss: SGD 12,936
YTD unused dividends/gains : SGD 167
YTD portfolio value: SGD 39,361

In another words, I am down 25% for 2011!

Most of the losses were from Etika and GMG Global, the latter has gone XR and so the price is really low. I have to cough up about SGD 1,840 cash for GMG Global's rights.

There will be some money coming in for me in 2012 February, once the acquisition of the remaining C&O shares get completed. The surprising thing was that the offer price will be adjusted for the dividend paid out. In any case, this will be factored into my profit and loss.

It has been a very humbling 2011 so far. I hope that there will be a strong finish.

Portfolio Major Corporate Updates - Part 1

Asiatic Group
1H12 revenue increased 3.9% but earnings fell 27.7% to SGD 0.8 million. For both the biomass project in Malaysia and hydro project in Vietnam, construction has commenced and project financing of both projects are undergoing negotiation and an update of the progress will be made known in due course.

Action Asia
9M11 revenue fell 37% while earnings fell by more than half to SGD 9.0 million. The company said that problems in Europe and US will cause electronic consumption to remain tepid.

Auric Pacific
9M11 revenue inched slightly higher by 0.7% while earnings rebounded to SGD 9.7 million, from SGD 3.1 million a year ago. The sharp gains resulted from the divestment of a project in Shenzhen China.


Biosensors International
Plenty of news coming out from drug trials, which were unsurprisingly positive. 1H12 revenue increased 72% while earnings grew to USD 45.5 million from USD 11.7 million a year ago.  Due to its acquisition of the remaining shares in JWMS and other reasons, the company has guided FY12 revenue to be 70-80% higher year-on-year.

C&O Pharmaceutical
Suspended. Will be taken private and details of the compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares will be announced by November 30, 2011. 


China Animal Healthcare
The company has said that it might restructure its shares such that they are all listed in Hong Kong, contrast to the current dual-listing. 9M11 revenue increased 33.8% while earning increased 84.2% to RMB 174 million. The strong increase in earnings was due to the surge in biological drug sales. The company warned that the subsequent fair value adjustments on the derivative financial instruments relating to the conversion option component of the convertible bonds may adversely affect its results.

Elite KSB
FY11 revenue increased 5.5% while earnings dipped 2.6%. The company said the cost of live chickens increased significantly in the second half of the last financial year. Also, the Australian dollar also strengthened against the Singapore dollar in the same period, resulting in higher cost of chilled pork. If the trend continues and we continue to be unable to pass on these cost increases to its customers, its performance for the next 12 months may be adversely affected.

Etika
9M11 revenue increased 30.1% while earnings fell 32.7%. The decline has been attributed to the higher cost of goods sold, which increased 39.4% for the first nine months of its financial year.