Thursday, May 27, 2010

i havent been following

call it confirmation bias. i havent been following the stock market for a while. there is really nowhere to hide in this market carnage. some people call it a vindication of the double-dip recession. in my opinion, think of it as a second chance to ride a recovery.

most of the analysis on the crisis has been shallow, less that from the economist. for those who still are unaware of what is happening, Greece, one of the smallest and weakest economies in the EU, has got problem staying functional due to its massive debts. it cannot really devalue the currency as it is part of the Euro.

alternatively, it can borrow money. but as we all know, no one wants to do so, at least from the open market.

the last option is to do a Russia and default on its loans. the last alternative is something that most financial institutions do no want. imagine, if Greece were to do that, all those repackaged loans floating in the systems as well as the derivatives. the consequences would be dire. i do not want to go on further. but suffice to say, is that markets look choppy in the near term but recovery in Asia is still intact.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The markets were terrible and for myself, I had a terrible work week.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Saturday, May 8, 2010

US$16 Billion Is Not The Same As US$16 Million

That was one explanation given as to why America's stock market went into a free fall. The keying in of an erroneous for the sale of P&G, which is a DJIA component, then sparked off a sequence of programme trades. Scary stuff.

The portfolio did badly, in line with the broader market. In terms of corporate development, Etika International announced that it entered into a syndicated loan. I guess that should be a sign of bigger things to come. China Animal Healthcare, the only S-Chip in my portfolio, announced a not to shabby 1Q10. Too my surprise, it announced a Rmb0.02 dividends.

Is there more pain to come? I think that there could be more panic selling. At the current levels, the STI is lower than it started the year, but still some 100 plus points higher than year-to-date lows, which is a good signs. Expect more volatility in the market as it tries to re-establish some equilibrium. Notice how China's tightening measure and Greek debt issues have already been in play for such a long time. Is it Lehman Part 2? I don't think so. Asian Financial Crisis Part 2? I don't think so. It is a market looking for meaningful correction and this is what it is.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

the portfolio slumped and here comes May. In any case, will update weekly for portfolio value.