Thursday, May 27, 2010

i havent been following

call it confirmation bias. i havent been following the stock market for a while. there is really nowhere to hide in this market carnage. some people call it a vindication of the double-dip recession. in my opinion, think of it as a second chance to ride a recovery.

most of the analysis on the crisis has been shallow, less that from the economist. for those who still are unaware of what is happening, Greece, one of the smallest and weakest economies in the EU, has got problem staying functional due to its massive debts. it cannot really devalue the currency as it is part of the Euro.

alternatively, it can borrow money. but as we all know, no one wants to do so, at least from the open market.

the last option is to do a Russia and default on its loans. the last alternative is something that most financial institutions do no want. imagine, if Greece were to do that, all those repackaged loans floating in the systems as well as the derivatives. the consequences would be dire. i do not want to go on further. but suffice to say, is that markets look choppy in the near term but recovery in Asia is still intact.

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