Will they be next year's winners?
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Will they be next year's winners?
Friday, December 25, 2009
Stocks that I have sold
Singapore Petroleum Company
China Milk Products
Original Purpose of the blog
To see if my portfolio can beat the STI (even though it is not the appropriate benchmark)
To see if I can double my investible capital $10,000 by end 2009, excluding dividend, after deducting brokerage
New Mission for the New Year
To track the growth in market value as at 31Dec-09 to 31 Dec-10
To see when is the exact date that the $14,000 grows into $28,000 after deducting for brokerage.
Stocks that I am currently holding not, in chronological order
Small Malaysian company manufacturing the entertainment sets you see in most cars. I bought it because I has attractive valuations. It has the combination of low PE and good earnings growth. To bump it up, it has applied for TDRs and I think that is positive step even though the new shares issued is dilutive.
Its share price has held up well and will have to wait for its TDRs to start trading in Taiwan as well as for its FY results to be out before doing a more thorough review.
I love the idea that it is generating electricity in Cambodia. It will take some time to figure out the real contribution of power generation to its top and bottom line. Financing is also an issue. Nonetheless, it has secured good partnership and it is a stock worth one year's wait to see if its potential is revealed.
Share price has held up well and has heavy trading on some days which make me wonder a bit due to the small public float. Financial performance wise it is slightly below expectation but I will wait for a new set of results before deciding to do anything else.
One of my speculative stocks. I think it is the only bio tech stock in Singapore. i am not certain that it is worth investing. my judgment tells me that its presence in china and its superior trial data makes it a good bet, till at least when there is a better drug eluting stent to siphon earnings from its cash machine. please note that it has bonds due to refinance in November.
One of the first few stocks that I have bought. I still like it and although I do not see the possibility that the company will declare dividends, it will be profitable for the coming full year. It has managed to avoid financing issues by issuing new set of convertible bonds.
Very thinly traded stock. I like it because it is one of those boring stocks. heck, it is the only listed chicken processor that i know off. nonetheless, i know that the upside might be very limited. I see 26cents as the upper threshold. good management with clever acquisition.
Still remains very thinly traded and its share price has hardly moved anywhere. I think I will get some more lots in this company so that I can make it 10 lots in case anything, possibly good happens.
Should have seen it earlier. took notice when i realised that Wilmar linked PPB group has a 5% stake in the company. thinly traded is also an issue but its revenue and bottom line look to grow exponentially as it tries to enter new markets.
I have a feeling that this will be a multi bagger despite having risen so much in the past year. But the funny thing is that the company has yet to announce the book closure date for its dividends. Will remain vested in this company for a long time.
I borrowed $500 from my friend to buy 4 lots. I bought it blindly to follow cramer's advice of getting a retailer. in my opinion, its fortune traces the general stock market. i wish i had bought more of it but what it has done for me is sufficient.
After a brief jump in its share price somewhere in the middle of the year, it has rested at its current price for a while. I am keeping it till it gives me the signal that the economy will collapse again as I believe that this retail stock is a leading indicator.
this is my cyclical story. i like it for the fact that it has presence in Africa. it has had a rights issue and its share price seems to be stuck at $0.105-0.110 range. My guess is that it is a stock that will have many cycles and hence opportunities to get in and out.
Mildly disappointed with this stock and I think it could have been a mistake to pump in my money when I could have gotten out. I worked out my calculation and it seems to show that unless it can figure a way to double its earnings despite only a brief recovery in rubber prices, then its existing EPS might not be justified.
Another speculative stock. It is less cyclical now and has that certain vibe around it. this recent acquisition will be held on for a year as well. its technology is good. it might not be the best but due to the fact that defence agencies do not like to change the platforms, should mean repeat customers for its intelligent vision technologies.
This stock taught me the lesson not to buy a stock just because you read it on the news etc. I had the chance to unload it but my personality does not allow me to hold a stock for a short period. As such, now I am holding on to a stock that does not really move. Will have to wait to the new year and hope (which is not the correct thing to do) that it might be bought over.
manufacturing LCD monitor and television. I hope it does not become another RCA. will have to watch and monitor the trends in television sales. the challenge from plasma is not there but LED becoming cheaper might give it a run for its money.
I am sitting on a paper gain on this counter. It had to one point risen to $1 then dropped back down when news that its supply chain my encounter some snags. I am keeping it because I cannot see an economic recovery without people getting more LCD TV.
I had only the money to buy this financial. I think im going to keep it for a while for its attractive dividend yield.
I really wonder why this stock does not appreciate in price like its peer Kim Eng. However, I sense that there will be a handsome dividend payout come the February.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Are we our own worst enemies when it comes to investing? The answer seems to be a resounding “Yes”, if we are to believe the work done by psychologists in the field of behavioural finance. To put it very briefly, people and as a result investors, tend to exhibit cognitive biases such as over confidence, biased judgements, herd mentality and loss aversion, that impair their ability to make sound investment decisions.
Personally, I think that it is good to understand why we make so much investment mistakes. By cutting down the mistakes, we increase our odds of making money in the long run. Remember, making mistakes are alright as long as you learn from it.
Also, costs are very important. If you factor in the investment that you could have made from the transaction fees incurred, it will make a significant difference in the long run.
i will talk more about long run investing when i do a review for stocks for the long run book again, in case you missed it the first time.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
the portfolio did not move much. i am contemplating getting 13 lots of elite ksb... but the stock has not move much and this will be my third buy in, increasing my total transaction costs. However, finding the funds for that 13 lots will be a problem for me.... to be continued
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
with that purchase, i think i will have lesser ammo for my next year portfolio. I am looking at $4,000 injection for 2010 and I have used up $1450. I am also considering getting some Elite KSB even though i know the transaction costs have come 3 time. maybe i should get 13 to make it 20 lots in total.
meanwhile you guys can check out sharesinvestment.com . There is a post on KS Energy, Novo group as well as China XLX. The write up on the 3 companies warrant a closer look.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
so sorry guys as it has been a while since i last posted. was flooded with work and also was out of the country for a short getaway.
from the screen shot above, the STI rose by 2.3%, more than my portfolio's 0.1%. it seems like it is going to take forever for the portfolio to reach $20,000. the bright side is that etika has declared a $0.01 dividend, which i will use it in the coming year to add on the my stock holdings.
i will do a thorough review of the portfolio by the end of the year and possibly suggest themes for next year. right now, i do hope that you guys have stayed invested since like who knows when.
i read that activity is the worst thing you can do to your portfolio due to the transaction costs involved.
on an unrelated note, i bought teh hooi ling's remaining volumes for "show me the money". after a careful reading, i realise that there are some things that need to be critically examined. for instance, when she looks at short term trading strategy, she always assume 1% transaction costs. however i believe that that amount understates real transaction costs for trades of smaller nominal quantity.
also, her favourite low P/B method stock strategy is benchmarked incorrectly in my opinion because some of the stocks are not STI component stocks. however it should be noted that there is a recent piece where her focus was on the component stocks and i feel that the returns benchmarked were more justifiable.
nonetheless, i still think that she makes a lot of sense but just becareful of anyone, yours truly included. because ultimately, we can only suggest and not hold responsibility for your end action.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
My outlook for the remainder of the year, with 1 plus month left is that there is, I think 2.5% upside maximum (low probability), with higher chances of swings within a tight range as the fund managers try to make small change so that they can answer to their clients. I'm looking at the 2,850 being breached this year, but it is not sustainable.
For those who like me are sticking for the long term, you can start accumulating now as i strongly believe that there will be a bull run that will see the 3,000 mark breached by 30 June 2009. This is the extremely bullish scenario.
The good money is that next year will be most likely up a little year, hence dividend plays are a must if you want good returns as corporate earnings are most likely to return to pre-crisis levels with the exception of shipping and small cap manufacturing. Sectors that are likely to disappoint next year will be the vaguely defined "Green Energy" stocks. Traditional companies in the energy sector such as AusGroup and Rotary Engineering should benefit from the return of investments into the resource sector.
Do email me as i would like to help you improve your stock picking process.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Most of the results for the quarter are out. Etika and Biosensor shone with their good set of results. Etika's earnings has beat analyst forecast by 5-10% while Biosensors has shown excellent qoq performance. UOB-KayHian has also shown a very positive 9M09 but its shares have remained level around $1.40 plus. I am waiting for that CNY cheer when it should propose a good final dividend of at least 4.5 cents.
Stratech has on the other hand disappointed, with its very poor earnings. This stock has not have any good news flow since appearing on The Edge. Maybe the guy is just tooting his own horn. GMG Global has also struggled. It is a classic case of too many shares not enough earnings.
Elsewhere, Genting and ChinaMilk have also failed to perform. Genting shares have now moved past $1.10 mark as the opening of the casino looms nearer. ChinaMilk has on the other handplunged to the $0.31 mark but there are people betting on a turnaround and have started to accumulate.
2 stocks that you should look out for if you have a 3 months horizon are Yongnam Holdings and Oceanus. No doubt they are punter's favourite, but they also have good fundamentals. Yongnam will recognise more revenue from its IR project and the dividends should come in next year.
Oceanus' TDRs is its catalyst. No doubt that the market might have priced it in, there is still some potential in guessing whether the TDR will be listed at a premium or a discount. Due to its specualtive nature, small bets are in order.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Was busy again at work having had to go out of office to followup on people. it was nonetheless a slightly fruitful week as i was kept busy and thus not having to look at stock quotes with the usual frequency.
Friday, October 30, 2009
October ended slightly lower than the previous month. Against the previous three months, the index also ended slightly lower in October. With October out of the way, I think we can look forward to a decent rally through the end of the year.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
The stock price has been staying at 10-10.5 cents for the longest times. it is not that i think GMG is a lousy company. I think with sinochem as its substantial shareholder, there should not be any problem getting into markets in PRC or Africa, or for the matter the grander scheme of the PRC government resource grab.
what irks me is that the m&a has been touted as a buying point of the company to its literal death. if you do notice, companies that actually issue rights will say that it is for acquisition purposes only one time - the time when it issues the cash call. GMG on the other hand has reminded us again that it is still on the acquisition trail in its latest financial result.
Either GMG's PR firm has run out of material to write for the press release or that the company is really negotiating to acquire a company, the smart money is that the cash call was meant to shore up balance sheet.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
my cousin asked me what i thought about Ezra Holding because she is considering of getting following there contract wins. i did not tell her much except show her the 5-year chart and told her that they have that "Ice Maiden" project which they acquired at distressed levels. the latter might contribute to the earnings but when, i do not know.
my dad was perhaps very wise. he said that how much higher can it go considering everyone has heard about it. a watched takes some time to rise and there is always the risk that you are the greater fool. hence, when you buy a stock because it is in the mainstream press, there is that chance you are over paying for it, making inferior returns. try to do your own stock scans looking out for great businesses to hold for 1-year out.
Also, I tried my best not to look at the stock quotes but instead kept my eyes peeled on filings on the SGX website. I feel better not looking at the prices because i get less angsty or excited. i think i will try to do that for the whole of next week, looking only at the end of friday so to update. you should try to do that too.
i think i might to suss out any good ideas.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
I think jamie from the business times wrote a followup on the company last friday and there, she said that the volatility of the stock has not led to a query on trading by the SGX. you might think the question she asked was naive, but i think she meant to say it ironically. so it is always a case of buyer beware in the marker when it comes to anything. remember, similar to the casino, the banker runs the gambling tables so that so one makes money of another person but not the banker. in the long run, the house always wins.
transcu has also stated that it makes money from cosmetics and green energy. but the last i checked, the two segments are not able to provide the necessary income to offset the research and development expenses. moreover, I am also unconvinced transcu can implement a successful sales strategy for its lidocaine patch. mind you, this product is still in the midst of testing and it has not begun the rigorous phase three yet. that is going to be more money burning. how it will keep afloat do make a guess. you have been warned.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
the negative comments i would like to make first is about Transcu Group. i had indirect interest in the company but i told my friend to sell it off because of the notes conversion. the main problem with Transcu is its $80m equity linked notes.
i have posted something on it in the forum and the gist is that Transcu is obligated to issue shares to the subscriber Advance Opportunities Fund (the person who loan transcu money) shares at a deep discount. for the past few weeks the fund has been converting those notes.
things changed recently when transcu announce that it is appointing DMG & Partners to find a subscriber for 320m placement shares. witness from the day of that announcement, the shares crept steadily from $0.115 to $0.20. that was till tomorrow.
My guess is as good as yours. but i think once placement shares are out and the 2nd sell down has commenced. The first sell down was from 23.5 cents to 11.5cents. However, it is important to note that Transcu has made amendments to the terms of the notes. mainly, Transcu has allowed itself some leeway in deciding whether to issue notes for the monies own. and in the even that transcu does not issue those notes, does note constitute a default in payment.
there are those lucky to have caught it on its way down and on the rise up to make a lot of money. however, i would advise those new to this counter to avoid it and not touch it even with a barge pole. its finances are in terrible shape as you can see it is trying all manner to obtain financing. Furthermore, it is still in the midst of obtaining approval for its products and the bottom line impact will not be obvious till maybe 2011. This is a stock where the retail investor is severely disadvantaged and even one brokerage placed it on its restricted list due to its huge volatility. do not pick pennies in front of a steam roller. you have been warned.
Monday, October 19, 2009
I would advise you to find your colleague at the Business Times and talk to them about investing in shares. Teh Hooi Ling is a good source of information cause after all she did write 4 books on how to invest called "show me the money". I am pretty sure you can get heavily discounted copies of her book which is published by Rank Books. if you think that buying her book is not a meaningful investment, you could access the company's data base and print all her previous columns. i mean, if SPH cut your pay, that does not mean you can't print enough of her columns and bind it into a book and label it "research expenses".
Also, if you wait a while more, maybe SPH would have developed the free retail portal, as part of their collaboration with SGX. Hopefully, by developing SGX's website to incorporate exisitng SPH portals such as AsiaOne and ShareInvestor, does not mean more work for the people over there at BT (those cunning bosses).
Personally, is ShareInvestor working out? Because I read that SPH put in $19m to buy it from The Lexicon Group and Michael Leong. The last i heard, the lexicon group is going into the korean disco business while michael leong went on to write a book about making $1,000,000 from stocks. maybe you can ask him for a copy of the book too.
the STI has hit 2,700 recently, maybe you could try to buy into DBS's STI ETF rather than individual stocks. if the market goes on right this year, you could be looking at returns on your capital better than fixed deposits of lehman minibonds. the latter required class actions and spending sometime at the hot and humid hong lim park before getting the returns.
but if you do intend to buy stocks the same way you select your wardrobe then there is still upside for many of the local stocks. as for stock ideas, you can visit Steven Lim's website, where the very talented gentleman has a segment dedicated to stock picks. maybe you can find out where is he going to talent scout or pluck eyebrows. but i pray that he does not strip into his yellow trunks and do that act he so oftens pulls out.
wishing you pleasant week ahead.
a follower of your column.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Another significant difference is that the studies done by Jeremy Seigel, support the case that stocks are good for the long run provided that the dividends are reinvested. In Singapore, I am aware that there is a share builder programme but that is mainly reserved for blue chip stocks. otherwise, i am not sure if there is a way whereby dividends can be reinvested meaningfully in Singapore.
The second half of October looks menancing as history's greatest falls occur there. If you are worried, you can start doing you homework now and create a shortlist of stocks you wish to buy in Novemeber when things get clearer. While the upside is not as great as 4 months back, current media headlines suggest that the strength of the stock market has yet to permeate the general population. People are still fearful and thats a good sign.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
What I would like to talk about more in detail is the 5 year chart. It shows Gold ETF convincingly beating Singapore and American stocks as well as the US Dollar.
A writer in his article on The Economist argues that the weakening of the US$ explains the shine in Gold ETF. He supports that arguments by showing that both the supply (which has been increasing) and demand (which has been weakening) for physical gold. This should actually show a downward trend in physical gold prices.
He elaborated further, saying that the weakening confidence in paper currencies can been in a rumour that OPEC will de-peg the price of crude oil from the dollar. Much earlier, there was also a rumour that Beijing was proposing an alternative to the dollar as the international reserve curreny. These are rumours which have since been dismissed. But the fact that they caused jolts to dollar on the days these rumours surfaced, suggests skittish investors.
What does it mean for the ordinary stock investor? I would suggest avoiding chasing "heat", that is, moving entirely to Gold ETFs. My suggestion is supported by the fact that short term gains from Gold ETF are not obvious. The winners riding on the Gold Bull have been those bitten by the gold bug a few years earlier.
This leads to the next question, should you buy US shares or US$? US shares you can buy, but be aware of the tax implications as well as the currency risks, which will eat into your gains.
For the US dollar, I really do not know and my best guess is as good as yours. What I think can happen is that the US$ will stay in a prolonged slumped till when the real economy recovers. There is an excessive debt in the US system, which it is trying to purge itself of. I am not saying debt is bad. What I am saying is that the debt and credit created from the sub-prime mess will take a long time to sort itself out and it is going to be a complicated process. 2011 will be a good time to believe that the sub-prime mess has cleared up.
Our conclusion brings us back to Singapore. Try not to worry and stay invested (if you are already in). As can be seen, the US Dollar has been underperforming compared to the Singapore stock market. You should only worry about the falling US dollar if you are and American on holiday or studying in Singapore. Otherwise, try to enjoy your weekend.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Reporting season for third quarter is near for Singapore stocks, it would be good to see how have some of the heavy weights like SPH and Keppel will perform. A good exercise during this period is to see how analyst earnings projections for those index company measure up against the real earnings.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Once again this is a book review on a book by Kenneth Fisher. He offers you 10 ways to be rich, but not all the ways are suitable to everyone. Here is the list
1. Start a successful business. This could be something simple from a blog shop or giving tuition over the weekends. But remember not to splurge on the added income.
2. Become CEO of an existing firm and juice it.
3. Hitch your wagon to a star. You might not be wealthy, but try to network or work with people who are. It’s not who you are but who you know that matters.
4. Turn celebrity into wealth. Just go Google Steven Lim, Xiaxue for more information how to get rich this way.
5. Marry well – really, really well. Either you marry someone rich, or you marry someone who does not cause you financial ruin.
6. Steal it, legally. Be a lawyer if you are still young and have yet to enter into university.
7. Use other people’s money. Be a money manager.
8. Invent an endless future revenue stream. This could be writing a book, a play or even writing songs for famous people. Use your talent!
9. Monetize unrealized real estate wealth.
10. Take the Road More Traveled. Save early and invest prudently.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
First, did you know that if you invested at 30, with a lump sum of $10,000 and you average 15% compounded till you are 65, you will have become a millionaire when you retire then? I know that is a random fact, but it shows that if you start early, even with a modest sum initially can turn into some thing big.
What is for the retail investor who is you and me? I think that there are ways to get out the market to minimise the damage done to the portfolio. You can read Fisher's books for how he does it. Briefly, when the general stock market declines more than 2% monthly, and that the market has fallen from its peak by more than 20% 3 months ago, you can turn to cash for safety.
However, you must systematically enter the stock market to re-equitise your portfolio. The point of the post is to show you that the ends of bear markets are really scary. There are enormous intra-day swings and day-on-day swings for the matter. Therefore you must discipline yourself to get into the market between 18-24 months after the peak. This is a rough guideline because so far, bear markets last this long on average. Do no try to bottom fish because very often, it is the fisherman that gets hooked.
What are your thoughts? Do you find what I have posted drivel or banal? Drop your comments or you can email me at email@example.com if you prefer a more private discussion.
But if you apply the ratios sensibly with your common sense, you can reduce making bad investments. Remember in the earlier posts, Kenneth Fisher talked about using multiple ratios such as price-to-sales, price-to-book, price-to-earnings?
With the knowledge gleamed from Investopedia's short tutorial, you can look at a company with a sense of coherency. When you read the annual report sent to you, as practice, you can try to derive some of the ratios to do little analyst work.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
Week on week, the STI fell 2.19% while my portfolio saw 4.23% whittling away. The biggest losers were my position in financials UOB-KH and retailer FJ Benjamin. Etika showed some promise this week surging to $0.445 at some point midweek, but returned back to $0.39 in line with the blood bath. During the week, penny stocks like Advanced Holdings, Yong Xin saw their roller coaster rides.
Other notable events were Singtel clinching the rights to the BPL. This has caused upset to existing StarHub subscribers who now might have to get a new decoder box.
These are the 5
Thursday, October 1, 2009
On top is an example of good discussion on a the Share Junction forum board. Question is, can both sides be right.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Her column on the Business Times is primarily on portfolio strategy, show casing portfolios of various constructs premise on different formulas. There are a wide range of investing ideas like investing in the biggest lossers, highest yield, etc. She tracks her portfolio fortnightly if I am not wrong and it is definitely worth a look. Borrow from your friend if you don't have a subscription.
Nonetheless, I believe that Business Times is not a value read like the Straits Times. I still believe that the Straits Times plus your checking of the SGX filings should suffice when tracking your portfolio. But Business Times does have very insightful opinion and commentary. Sometimes, very aggressive pieces get to print, raising questions at the financial regulation authorities for perceived lack of oversight.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Forbes Magazine dated July 13, 2009
This issue marks the 25th anniversary of my column. That's a long run in columnland. It's been a blast. Thanks for your attention. Reviewing my first year's columns, I pondered: What would I still say? What would I say now that I didn't then?
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Reversion To The Mean
Can I Beat The Market?
2. Where you end depends on where you begin. Right now, with markets slowly
The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar's Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market
You can read about the book here.
What I like about the book
What I learnt from the book
Saturday, September 26, 2009
I will try to post a screen shot every week and add some comments. At the moment, I am up by more than 80% and that includes all the dividends from FY08 and the current FY. This is a simple number because theoretically, I should calculate on an IRR basis to factor in the money I added at various times.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Diversify but not too much, 9-12 stocks in your portfolio should be manageable
there are three books which i deem to be the cornerstone of my stock picking.
1. Kenneth Fisher's
My $10,000 portfolio now looks like this:
Sunday, September 20, 2009
My objective: To reach $700,000 in stock investment by 55, excluding CPF and House.
Learning Objective: To show people that you can build wealth for retirement even if you start off with a small amount of capital.
Start Point: I have invested close to $10,000 in capital as end Sep-09, buildup earlier in Feb-09.
Strategy: While putting some money for my life neccesities, annually I will inject at least $4,000 into the portfolio.
My 1st 6 months holdings in order of acquisition:
Sunday, September 6, 2009
A quick recap of August.
The most notable has been the wild fluctuations in the the stock market. Notable stocks that have been steadily appreciating in price are: Sinotel, Genting Singapore and RTO Seroja Investments.
Going forward, there is one stock you should keep a look out for, Falmac.
It is also another RTO target this time by Peter Choo who might want to inject his mining assets into this troubled textile machine making company. I am suggesting only a small bet on the day it is lifted from suspension. This would take place after its EOGM at the end of Sept.
Before it got suspended, its last done price was $0.06. Also, Peter Choo and his associates own a large chunk of the company, despite its accounting iiregularities. What I dare hazard a guess as, would be that you should make a bid within 10 bids of this price ($0.06-0.11).
I do not know how they are going to solve the financial problems, but if they do, it would make Falmac at least worth $0.20.
you have been told.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
As mentioned before, buy on dips with money that you do not need for the next 5 years. If the world financial system were to collapse, life must still go on. People must still buy stuff.
There is the concern that the market is close to being fully valued and will trade in tight bands as it awaits or real signs of recovery. Heck! In Singapore, people are back to lining up for condo launches as if the worst was over?
What should you buy? I can't tell you explicitly as it is dependent on how you want to construct you portfolio. If you want something for 5 years out, put 50% money on the highest yielding stocks with market cap greater $1billion. Singpost and SMRT are not high yielding but their dividend consistency is something to look out for.
A small bet can be placed on Genting Singapore. This will be another one for at least 5 years. Remember, it makes money from both its Singapore operations and UK casinos, of which the latter has been under performing.
Lastly, small caps like FJ Benjamin can be considered to ride the economic recovery wave that is waiting to be unleashed in the shortest time of 6 months.
Good portfolio construction comes with good stock picking.