Saturday, August 6, 2016

Why this Singaporean thinks Donald Trump will be President of the United States (POTUS)

First off, I do not support either candidates for POTUS. My interest in the US elections are the outcome, namely, who gets elected to be POTUS. I do have wager with a friend on the outcome of the elections. Furthermore, just because I think Trump will win, does not mean I think Trump should win. Meaning, I do not agree with the things he says or the way he does things.

I think Trump will win because of his skills as a public speaker. Some of us will be critical about the things he says at rallies, but he does connect with most Americans. He may seem to alienate non-White voters but that is because his speeches are often contorted by the US mainstream media. The US MSM is owned by Wall Street, who want Hillary to be POTUS. Hillary's connection with Wall Street is a fact that other Democrats, such as Bernie Sanders and his supporters, are well aware of and have documented.

Why is it I think Hillary is weak as a public speaker that I do not think she will win in November? I asked those around me who watched the conventions, which was better, the Republican National Convention (RNC) or the Democratic National Convention (DNC). They, mostly women, said it was the DNC. The DNC has the Obamas and Bill Clinton speaking and they were in good form. There were balloons and katy Perry! However, they added that Hillary Clinton pales in comparison to them. Something about her that makes them feel suspicious of Hillary. She is very cold and clinical.

I have said it elsewhere, Bernie Sanders would be a better candidate against Trump. He may seem to have the support of only university kids, but I think he voices out the issues that Middle America is facing. At the issues levels, he will give Trump a good fight. However, as we have found out, Hillary is the preferred candidate from the time Obama was elected and re-elected as President. She is the establishment's choice.

With less than 100 days to the elections, polls suggest that Hillary has an advantage over Trump. Interestingly, telephone polls put Hillary more ahead of Trump than in online polls. In online polls such as the Reuters/Ipsos, I think Americans are less shy to say they will vote for Trump.

Trump will continue to face challenges from being himself as well as the US press, but if he avoids major faux pas, he will win. Hillary on the other hand faces the challenge of facing the American public continually without the Obamas pitching in beside her. We might see her being strained from all the travelling, possibly affecting her already poor health.

End-July portfolio analysis

For July 2016, my portfolio fell 4.8% month on month, compared to the slight gain of the STI (+0.8%). Year-to-date, my portfolio is ahead by 11.3% compared to the Singapore benchmark's hair cut of 0.6%. For July, my biggest losers were Delfi (formerly Petra) and KrisEnergy. Delfi carried out a capital reduction, returning 13.3 cents to shareholders but share price fell 45 cents. KrisEnergy has been affected by the route in the oil and gas space, following Swiber's liquidation filing and subsequent judicial management u-turn.

Prior to the Swiber fallout, a friend asked me for my opinion on Sembcorp Marine. He was thinking of accumulating the shipyard's shares, which is at the lowest in its history, in anticipation of a sudden swing upwards when oil price recovers. I told him to wait it out as the market is correcting. Upside is marginal but downside is significant, unless you are hoping for a privatisation. It is the survival of the fittest in the O&G space. Clients are not paying and there is no demand for drilling rigs, which is in oversupply. I agree that there is always a possibility of recovery, but as the shipping (NOL), commodities (think Noble and WIlmar) and property markets have shown us, the downturn is long and painful. Gravity applies. 

About a year ago, I warned readers not to buy shipbuilders and services companies. I said:

Any uptick in oil prices may not increase the demand for new vessels given a surfeit of them. For the services company, competition may prevent day rates from recovering to pre-crisis levels.

Personally, I feel that the worst of the sector has yet to come. No one really knows how long oil prices will remain low. I guess that there will be consolidation in the market as some of the E&P, shipbuilders and services companies face financial difficulties. That is another story altogether. 

This would have saved you huge amounts of money and from heartaches.