Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Are we missing out on the recovery in the Singapore stock market?

In my 16 January post, I mentioned that I expect the market to hit a bottom between February and October 2016, with the bottom to be around 2,200-2,400. The market has recently touched the 2,700 mark (2 March 2016). It could be that we have reached the end of the third phase of the bear market, with 21 January being the end of that phase and the bottom of the market. A silent recovery could be quietly taking place. Or it could be the calm before the storm, when the market does plunge to 2,200-2,400.

My take is that we have probably (75% +/- 12%) past the market bottom. A lot of China money is recently entering the market after efforts by the PBOC to cut rates. This is has the knoock-on effect of reinjecting liquidity into local markets but might not be sustainable for China.

My personal approach will be to wait one to two weeks before deciding to enter market, looking out for market drops to enter the market. If the market can stay above 2,700 for more than 2 weeks, it is probably recovering quietly. There is limited downside from current levels to 2,200, if it indeed a calm before the storm scenario. I still shun oil and gas stocks, preferring companies that have have taken a beating but have good business fundamentals.


  1. Replies
    1. There is a high probability of upside at the moment. Outweighs the effect of a crash in the near term.