Friday, December 30, 2011

Final Score for 2011

The local stock market has closed for 2011 and it is time to update some scores.

Same basket of stocks on end-2010 vs STI year-on-year 

Sgx Stockpicker -26.8 % vs STI -17.5%

This has been a terrible year! For most long-only investors such as myself. As I have written before, almost everyone on the street and the CBD were over optimistic and what hit us hard was the resurfacing of the Eurozone crisis which does not seem to seek resolution. Most market watchers expect a flattish 2012 and for myself, I expect an exact opposite as I expect Obama to work his magic. I could be wrong.

In 2011, I have been buying stock at a higher total transaction value due to better cash flows. This has resulted in difficulties in tracking the portfolio. It does not help that I am not very adept with Google documents.

As usual, I will try to find some way to keep score, but on the simplest level, however:

A. Current cumulative investment: SGD 30,000

B. End-2011 Portfolio value (to measure for against 2012 and includes all new stock): SGD 37,018 and SGD 265 free cash
C. B divided by A divided by 3 years gives me approximately 8%
Frozen till further notice: C&O Pharmaceutical of about SGD 4,400

I have been in the stock market for close to three years and using all the convenient points, my returns on the cash invested out of my pockets amounts to just 8% and maybe 6% if we take a haircut. Most of the large gains were from the earlier rounds of investing during the recovery phase and my recent purchases have fallen flat.

I am not sure how much more money will I dump in the stock market as I feel like accumulating my wealth in cash, for contingencies as well as expected big ticket items. Given that I expect C&O to buyback what is now my shares in the form of physical certificate, SGD 4,400 is a decent amount for me to start hunting for value in 2012. Let the researching begin.

Have a bountiful 2012! Cheers!

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