Monday, September 7, 2015

Singapore GE2015 Prediction: PAP to retain super-majority in new Parliament (77-12-0)

The table above shows predictions of each of the wards contested. Highlighted in blue are the constituencies where Mothership said would be interesting to watch. Predicted vote share in red red text represents the constituencies where PAP is at-risk of losing.

My prediction will be that WP will be able to retain all the seats (7) where it was the incumbent as well as secure East Coast GRC (4) and MacPherson SMC (1). Sources other than Facebook tell me that East Coast GRC has become even more receptive to the Workers' Party in their area. Does not help the PAP that Lim Swee Say has made remarks that can be and has been construed by Malaysia and China as slightly offensive. For MacPherson, while it is a three-cornered fight, the NSP candidate has more or less wrote himself out of the competition with his remarks about PAP's Tin Pei Ling. I am getting more positive about WP's Bernard Chen given the WP's daily rallies.

Although Marine Parade GRC and Fengshan SMC are according to me at-risk of being lost by the PAP, I think it is still slightly in PAP's favour. For Marine Parade GRC, Goh Chok Tong will still be the main draw, rather than Tan Chuan Jin. The PAP team has also been aggressively campaigning. For Fengshan SMC, I saw the the WP candidate's rally speech and I think he is not as inspiring as the rest of the WP slate. The PAP's Cheryl Chan's grassroot experience should shift the results in her favour.

I do not think the fight in Potong Pasir SMC will still be very close but I think PAP's Sitoh Yih Pin will be able to retain his seat from SPP's Lina Chiam. I also do not think for Mountbatten SMC, returning candidate Jeanette Chong will be able to nick the seat from PAP's Lim Biow Chuan.

Even if the PAP were to lose additional seats as described above, it will still retain a supermajority in the next parliament. Interestingly, my calculations suggest that the PAP will have a popular vote of 59.7%. This means that the PAP will manage to arrest its decline in vote share from the last election. This is mainly due to the weakness of weakness of NSP. It was GE2011 best performer but resignations of some of its candidates will mean it is viewed less favourably as an alternative.

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