Saturday, October 10, 2015

Dead STI cat bouncing?

My lengthy absence is due to a torrent of work. It did not help that the index went into a sustained free fall the past few weeks after the General Elections. In between, I managed to read Subhas Anandan's two books, The Best I Could and It's Easy to Cry. I found his book very illuminating, giving us a lawyer's view of Singapore's justice system. I felt him talking to me through his book mainly because he was somewhat a media personality and that I saw him in person in his later years. Once, I was on a bus towards Holland Village and saw him seated at a back of a Jaguar. I immediately recognised his face, his white hair and beard. The other time, he was in a hospital robe with his family in the SGH. From the book, I learnt that he had heart problems even from an early age. 

Anyway, my portfolio has declined 17% on a year-to-date basis. I thought of bailing out at some point of time, but I remember that we have to sell in strength. My short view is that April 2015 was the peak of the secular bull and we should expect a bear market to last for 10-18 months. So far, we are only six months into the bear market at the recent uptick I believe is just a technical rebound. Keep cash and wait a bit more.

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