Thursday, December 24, 2015

The 4 predictions I made in 2015 and how it saved your portfolio

In the close to 40 posts in 2015, five of them had predictions about the market:

Jan 2015: "2015 will be a good time to buy stocks, when Brent oil price hits USD 45 per barrel"

3/4 wrong but if your entry point was when Brent hit USD 45 per barrel, there should be upside.

Feb 2015: "We are not yet near the peak of a bull market, if we consider 11 IPOs per month an indicator for a peak bull"

Wrong. We have yet to see 11 IPOs per month but the market has been tanking.

Mar 2015: "Do not buy shipbuilders and oilfield services companies"

Correct. These companies have significantly underperformed the broader STI.

Jun 2015: "Do not expect a a longer term recovery"

Correct. The following six months, the market has tanked and is expected to tank for at least two more months until February 2016.

Oct 2015: "April 2015 is the peak of the bull market. A bear market will last 10-18 months from there"

TBD. Earliest recovery date is February, latest will be October 2016.

Except for the post on the IPO indicator, most of my predictions were correct. These predictions were written rather clearly. Had you followed my posts, while you probably were not able to exit stocks entirely, you would have at least sold the oil and gas stocks while at the same time not invest any money since June 2015. In theory, this would have limited your downside tremendously. For 2016, I intend to be very clear with my predictions so that I can assess my own instincts.

If you think I omitted a prediction where I was wrong, let me know. If you have other thoughts on the market such as where the bottom will be and if the oil and gas sector is doomed, feel free to discuss in the comments or email me.

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