Sixty-six dollar and fifty cents profit on C&O Pharma

As some of you may know, Shinogi has managed to acquire at least 90% of all ordinary shares in C&O. It will now acquire the remaining shares that have not been tender at the offer price.

I did a quick calculation and my cost of purchasing 9,000 C&O shares was $4,501, $67.50 dividends in between, while the offer will give me $4,500.

This means that during the same period I have been holding on to the shares, the STI lost about 15%, I made a 1.5% gain!

A 1.5% gain is nothing much, considering that there are opportunity costs that I did not factor in. Also, I am a bit sad to have to lose a drug-maker in my portfolio. Nonetheless, C&O's share price had been languishing for a very long time, and Shinogi looks like a white knight on hindsight.

I will have to email the company to find out when my shares will be acquired and when the money will be in the bank. Hunting season begins when I sort that out.

Is the bottom near or far?

I have not been following the market very closely because most of the news coming out is the same - America, China and Europe (ACE) is crashing or landing softly.

I would like to buy some stock soon, as my position in C&O will most likely be liquidated due to the 95%-threshold being crossed eventually. Also, I have not invested much this year. This is not helped by the fact that the market does look attractive.

In terms of valuations, most of the Singapore blue chips are trading close to the GFC levels.

Personally, I will shore up my stake in an FMCG company or those stocks that have high sustainable dividend yield. This is because my view is that all will come to pass eventually, and picking these stocks does not cause much grief. Furthermore, I do not see how the existing problems will lower the revenue of companies selling basic food stuff.

For the readers, if you have the money, I will suggest global oil services companies listed anywhere, but the holding period will only be 1-2 years from today. Oil is a necessity still and as I have often said, if it were not for the takeover offer, I would be holding on to the shares of SPC.

I have taken a look at the STI charts and identified the start of August as the turning point of the market. My own investment rules tells me to wait at least 18 months before increasing positions. This is usually how long a bear market last. I do not mind buying stocks in the next one month as I will still have at least 10 more months to shore up my money for one big purchase. So to summarise, I am aiming short and long, but not in the middle.

That is of course not taking into consideration, the cost of doing my Masters or preparing for Marriage. Things that start with M.

I cannot wait for the year to end. The past twelve months has been very fruitful.

Portfolio in pain as Transatlantic fears return

It has been a horrible 3 months or so. The problems in America and Europe show no signs of abating since returning to haunt the markets in 2011.

Shares of C&O look likely to be suspended as the acquirer looks to shore up to the 95% level. I am not sure if I can still sell them at the open market or just wait for them to re-tender. In anycase, I will make a slight loss on this investment.

This is nothing compared to Stratech. The shares of this Singapore technology company has slid continually even before the recent meltdown, because it has been hardly turning a profit. It has recently announced an acquisition to be satisfied partly through the issuance of new shares.

There is not much to say for the rest of the portfolio as they have not been able to escape the flight from assets with any sort of risk.

Things have been busy at work. I just crossed the one year mark with the company and I think there are things to do and more skills to development. I am still lacking in terms of industry knowledge and recent events have made me realised that I may not be the best person for the current job. But then again, seldom is there a perfect fit.

Will take the weekend to recharge and consider my options as well as game plan.

is this the double dip we are looking for

Is this the double-dip that everyone was talking about 2-3 years ago? Based on the past month alone, this scenario seems very likely. There has been a steady flow of negative news and economists are already predicting a recession in the latter half of this year.

In my opinion, there is a double-dip in the stock market but not in the global economy. The reason for the stock market to decline precipitously is that all the money that has been pumped in - QE I and  QE II - were not put to productive use. Rather, they were used to give stock prices a boost. When the underlying does not improve, stock prices that are pumped up using borrowed money, will have to obey the law of gravity. This is what we are seeing the past weeks.

What about the economy? In my opinion, it was hardly out of the woods when the whole thing began. When I say the whole thing, I am referring to the fact that we were entering the down phase of the business cycle. The fact that America has not been able to sort out its credit woes, with the mortgage sector the most important one, economic activity in the the number one economy had to revert to a realistic condition. That is why despite the Obama's administration best efforts, job figures are still as bad.

Will the stock market get better? Based on recent events, I would think that things will get shakier before getting better. Sub-2,800 levels of the STI looks like a decent range to be trading in. Once all the big money is flushed out of stocks and into other asset classes, that is the time to get in.

Portfolio sinks in pain, opportunities missed

This was a miserable month as the portfolio reverted to June levels. What was frustrating were the uncertainties in the market and the wild swings has planted doubts into my head whether to increase my stake in Etika International.

It was not all that bad as GMG Global recovered and is currently at 24.5 cents. I did not take any action on my C&O Pharmaceutical and am now waiting for the stock to be suspended should the 90% threshold be achieved by the acquirers.