Monday, May 2, 2011

General Election 2011 forecast

From Straits Times, April 30, 2011
This table was part of the article on the Straits Times April 30, 2011. This is a very good table because it shows what the results may be, if there is a swing against the PAP.

The writer uses the results from 2006 where possible and uses 66.6% if there was a walkover, which I feel is fair enough.

What is interesting about this table is that with the exception of Bukit Panjang Single Member Constituency (SMC), a 5% swing against the PAP will mean them winning about 56.7% of the vote for most of the SMCs. For the Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs), such a scenario of swing votes means only East Coast  (57.9%) and Aljunied (50.1%) falling below the 60% mark.

My take is that once the elections are over, how the SMCs perform will determine whether again they will be spliced, and how GRCs perform will determine how  boundaries will be redrawn. Side note, this table will be a good companion as the votes are counted after polling day.

No comments:

Post a Comment