Saturday, May 7, 2011

PAP to get between 55 and 60 percent of votes cast

I have closed the poll on the right to coincide with the actual end of polling day. 44 people have responded and based on the categories I have gave them, the results are:

Median (the middle): The PAP will win between 55 and 60 percent exclusive of the average votes cast
Mode (the most frequent): The PAP will win an average of between 50 and 55 percent exclusive of the average votes cast
Mean (or the simple average. please ask for methodology): The PAP will win about 57.7 percent of the average votes cast.

Based on my poll, I can conclude that the respondents of this poll generally believe that the PAP will not perform as well as the previous General Election in 2006. Then, there were fewer seats contested and the PAP won an average of 66.6 percent of the total votes cast. The reason I did not disclose that figure when I first started this poll was that I wanted to prevent readers from anchoring their opinion.

We will know the results over the course of the next 5-6 hours and if this poll is indicative of the sentiment on the ground, there will be some too close to call situations. I will do a review of the poll results against the actual election results. What I think at the moment is that the average votes secured by the PAP will be closest to the median of my poll - between 55 and 60 percent exclusive.

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