The portfolio value for measuring 2015’s performance is SGD 115, 736 and this includes an assumed SGD 15,000 cash injection. This will be corrected for any dividends I may have missed out for 2014, once the yearly SGX statement arrives in my mail.
At the end of today’s trading day (8 January), the portfolio is valued at SGD 116,158 and it comprises almost SGD 30,000 in cash, and SGD 86,000 in five stocks – Colex, F&N, GMG Global, Petra Foods, Super Group. Only Colex and Petra are in the money. I am sitting on a 30% loss for Super Group as it claims to be affected by the impasse in Thailand. The feeling is not so super. GMG Global and F&N are slightly less in the red (-24.5% and -10.7% respectively). GMG has rallied in the start of the year, against the trend of falling natural rubber prices and this may imply a possible cash call.
I am going to stick my head out and say that 2015 will be a good year to buy stocks. My gut feel tells me that when the price of crude oil reaches almost bottom, about USD 45 per barrel, it is time to load up. I have provided the link for your reference. http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=10y
After getting fully vested in stocks on 13 October, the last thing I wanted to see was a stock market meltdown. The American stock market fell steeply this week and this spread globally, with the STI falling 44 points on 16 October. Given that my basket of stocks is mainly defensive, I did not expect to be hurt badly but I was surprised to see Petra post a one day fall of 35 cents, wiping out SGD 2,500 in my portfolio's value.
That said, the timing of my recent acquisition was premised on this article by Kenneth Fisher, whom I turn to for indicators. It was written in May and argued then that the fourth quarter should see some gains amid volatility. He has been correct on the volatility part. Reading Fisher's piece that reinforced my impulse and convictions, and so I pulled the trigger on the F&N purchase.
What ever left needed to be convinced about F&N, was in the form of a Motley Fool article. To a large extent, F&N replaces Etika (now Envictus) in my portfolio as the latter has already disposed of its dairy business. I am not convinced that there will be future growth in Envictus' remaining business given that they have been weak traditionally. Management has hinted at the possibility of property development, but I am skeptical of Malaysia property. I am just waiting for an opportunity to offload the stock.
I've also been reading bad things about Super Group to the extent I am regretting my purchase, which was done pre-bonus. The Super buy was done at relative high average prices and forms the biggest chunk of stocks by original value. The chronic weakness of the stock has left a gut wrenching feel to my stomach. Nevertheless, I will probably sit on this investment for a while more. If the market improves, and the stock does not move in the same manner, I will probably let Super Group go. Two more stocks on the sell list are GMG Global and Envictus but that is for another time.
I am typing this on my mobile because typing on my PC feels like working. After the many recent sales and purchases, I have utilised all the special dividend distributed by Etika and I am now fully invested. My latest purchase yesterday was F&N. I may cash out on Etika since I am.overweight the basic consumer sector. More details to follow.
