Sold my KrisEnergy

I have not really been looking at the portfolio, until my friend asked me recently if I have been investing. It was when I realised that her clients that were invested in funds, were up 15%, while I was most likely down. Delfi, has swum against the rising Trump rally by halving in price. I took the opportunity to look at my portfolio, which comprised 6 companies. Now, on 1212, the portfolio shrank to 5 companies because I sold my shares in Krisenergy. Sensing an opportunity, I bought 20,000 shares in March 2015. However, the oil price environment remains low and I have sold them, taking a 82% hit in the process. Ouch!

In April 2017, I accepted the offer for my Super Group shares. As a result of this, along with the year's injection I am currently 39% cash and 61% in the remaining 5 companies' shares. My main target will be Delfi, as well as other companies close to their 52-week low.

Gone Girl: GMG Global and Super Group

I finally submitted my acceptance of the Halcyon Agri offer for GMG Global shares. This will result in me having odd lot shares of the enlarged group, with fractional entitlements being rounded down. This leaves me slightly worse off. I do not have a significant investment in GMG Global and I am content to let the share ride into the sunset or sunrise, the latter being preferred.

As for Super Group, the new offer by the Dutch company will only take me to my breakeven point. I have been acquiring the company's shares since 2014. The bonus issue was supposed to bring me joy but alas.

With two more months of the calendar year, I am now tasked to look for suitable stocks to deploy the cash that will be freed up from the Super Group offer.

Bought more Super Group

Decided to put my money where my mouth is. I bought 4,000 shares of Super Group at SGD1.04. This brings my average cost down to SGD1.26 from SGD1.60 at the start of the year. My capital injection of SGD10,000 for 2016 has been maxed out. Perhaps will build up a smaller cash portfolio of SGD5,000, in case more opportunities arise. Was contemplating between F&N and Super Group. However, Super's yield is much higher than F&N (same amount, but Super has a lower share price). Fingers crossed.

Bought Super Group (The Singapore One)

Bought 8,000 shares of Super Group on Tuesday near closing time. Buying them ahead of their financial results next week, in case they surprise me. This averages down my cost of 22,000 shares SGD1.60 to SGD1.30 or about 45% underwater based on current market prices. 

Super pays out 50% of its net profit each year. Based on the third quarter results, earnings are likely to be 60-70% of FY2014. As such, the final dividend might just be 1 cents per share, making it 2 cents for the FY2015, giving it a current yield of 2.8%. Will be looking forward to the results next Tuesday.

Separately, I am also heading to KrisEnergy's investor event next Friday. Management will likely talk up its prospects and give operational updates. I might do a field report if I do get there. I am quite excited as it is the first time I am attending a event linked to my portfolio holdings. I have yet to attend an AGM over the past 6-8 years.

HLFinance, Petra and Super Group financial results

Hong Leong Finance

Interest on loans increased 7.7% to SGD 197 million but earnings to shareholder fell 10.4% to SGD 63 million. This is due to an increase in general provision made on its loan portfolio. 

PE ratio remains stable year-on-year at around 17-18.5 times. PB fell slightly to 0.7 times from 0.72 times in 2013. Yield has however fallen to 1.9% from about 3.0% a year ago.

The softening Singapore property market as well as the Singapore economy will weigh heavily on the future prospects of the company. While the stock is priced right, I am placing Hong Leong Finance on my watchlist of stocks to dispose.

Petra Foods

Revenue fell 0.9% to USD 504 million due largely to weaker sales in the regional markets (ex Indonesia). earnings and profit from continuing operations fell 17.8% due to the weakness of local currencies against the US dollar.

PE ratio improved to 38 times from an astronomical 87 in 2013. PB remained almost unchanged at 6.2 times. Yield fell from 2.2% to 1.9%.

The sale of its ingredients division has entered into arbitration as the buyer has sought price reductions. I like the company because it is in the basic foods segment with exposure to the Indonesian market. I will hold on to this stock until there is a big special dividend.

Financial results out for Colex, GMG Global, Hong Leong Finance, Petra Foods and Super Group

Collected my first dividend worth SGD 210 from F&N in February.

By the end of February, most of the Singapore listed-company's 2014 full-year results were out and I will review two of them quickly below.

Colex Holdings

Revenue for this waste disposal and cleaning services company increased 11.5% to SGD 58.7 million due to rollover effects of existing contracts at a higher value and new contracts secured. As a result, earnings less minority interest increased 56% to SGD 4.3 million. The improvement in net profit margins. 

Working on the recent last done price as well as a year ago, PE ratio remains stable year-on-year at around 8.2-8.3 times. PB increased to 1.4 times from 1.1 times in 2013. Yield has however fallen to 1.9% from about 3.0% a year ago.

The company cited manpower costs as the main challenge going forward. I will need to do more research how the various government incentives will impact the compact. Based on the results and ratios, I will say that the company is priced with almost no further upside unless dividend payout increases. 

What to do with $30,000 free cash?

The portfolio value for measuring 2015’s performance is SGD 115, 736 and this includes an assumed SGD 15,000 cash injection. This will be corrected for any dividends I may have missed out for 2014, once the yearly SGX statement arrives in my mail.

At the end of today’s trading day (8 January), the portfolio is valued at SGD 116,158 and it comprises almost SGD 30,000 in cash, and SGD 86,000 in five stocks – Colex, F&N, GMG Global, Petra Foods, Super Group. Only Colex and Petra are in the money. I am sitting on a 30% loss for Super Group as it claims to be affected by the impasse in Thailand. The feeling is not so super. GMG Global and F&N are slightly less in the red (-24.5% and -10.7% respectively). GMG has rallied in the start of the year, against the trend of falling natural rubber prices and this may imply a possible cash call.

I am going to stick my head out and say that 2015 will be a good year to buy stocks. My gut feel tells me that when the price of crude oil reaches almost bottom, about USD 45 per barrel, it is time to load up. I have provided the link for your reference. http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx?timeframe=10y 

The shrinking of balls

After getting fully vested in stocks on 13 October, the last thing I wanted to see was a stock market meltdown. The American stock market fell steeply this week and this spread globally, with the STI falling 44 points on 16 October. Given that my basket of stocks is mainly defensive,  I did not expect to be hurt badly but I was surprised to see Petra post a one day fall of 35 cents, wiping out SGD 2,500 in my portfolio's value.

That said, the timing of my recent acquisition was premised on this article by Kenneth Fisher, whom I turn to for indicators. It was written in May and argued then that the fourth quarter should see some gains amid volatility. He has been correct on the volatility part. Reading Fisher's piece that reinforced my impulse and convictions, and so I pulled the trigger on the F&N purchase. 

What ever left needed to be convinced about F&N, was in the form of a Motley Fool article. To a large extent, F&N replaces Etika (now Envictus) in my portfolio as the latter has already disposed of its dairy business. I am not convinced that there will be future growth in Envictus' remaining business given that they have been weak traditionally. Management has hinted at the possibility of property development, but I am skeptical of Malaysia property. I am just waiting for an opportunity to offload the stock. 

I've also been reading bad things about Super Group to the extent I am regretting my purchase, which was done pre-bonus. The Super buy was done at relative high average prices and forms the biggest chunk of stocks by original value. The chronic weakness of the stock has left a gut wrenching feel to my stomach. Nevertheless, I will probably sit on this investment for a while more. If the market improves, and the stock does not move in the same manner, I will probably let Super Group go. Two more stocks on the sell list are GMG Global and Envictus but that is for another time. 

Bought Super Group: Now hoping for the best

I had to check my phone again because it was showing me that shares of Super Group were traded close to SGD 3. This was especially shocking since it was almost close to SGD 5.00 at one point. Scrambling for news, I discovered that Super's profits were hit by the unrest in Thailand, given the company's exposure to the market there. I decided to take the plunge and may be do some contra-ing as I have done before. However, given that I was buying at a period so close to XB, the temptation was there for me to settle. And I did settle. Now, hope is much of the equation. My line of thinking is that once the price goes XB, the lower price would prompt people to buy in. I am painfully aware that while companies that give bonus shares tend to indicate positive outlook within the company, there are companies that did the same and tanked, Etika International being a good example. It has yet cross the SGD 0.50 mark that was its high before it went XB. More to monitor in the coming months.

What have I been busy with

My last real post was more than a month ago due to time constraints due mainly to school and work commitments, not to mention the Chinese New Year break.

School took most of my time. I was roped in to be the backup for a project which I was originally tasked to sit out. The thing with this group project is that the members giving me problems were those that were allocated to my group by the lecturer. Furthermore, I decided on a group project module because it meant one less exam but who would have known that it cost me the same amount of time and anguish!

Concurrently at the point of time, I had to work on my essay which was due in the middle of February. This was for my more regular module focused on Southeast Asia but the theme was unfamiliar to me. This was not helped by the fact that the section of the National Library where I had intended to camp and do my research was closed for maintenance work.

The triple whammy was that I had a very important piece of report I needed to update as part of my day job. I did badly for the previous update and went at lengths that I did not meet the same problems as with last time. Needless to say, there were days at work when my brain stopped functioning because there was just so much to read and digest. 

As for the stock market, there was a major meltdown during the Chinese New Year period and things have started to look normal. I am maintaining my earlier outlook but I will change according every 3 months. 

There was some good news concerning the stocks that I hold. There was a strong rebound in the price of Wilmar although I am still in the red. Biosensors International also benefitted from rumours that it might be potentially taken over. Super Group, my most recent holdings, announced that it will carry out a 1-for-1 bonus issue. It means that the price will become lower XB, and may mean more participation from other retail investors. PetraFoods on the other hand announced a record dividend payout although it was not as much as I had hope it would distribute, considering the gains it made from its divestment. 

Outside the stock market, things are returning to normal. I now need only to take one more module for the next three months before completing my course. After which, I am support to serve the country for 3 weeks for a course!

Well, I will still be accumulating my monies for until after the World Cup at least. 

Start point for 2014: SGD 87,121

This post is just for reference for the 2014 annual review.

Portfolio at end-December 2013  values, including some Petra Foods (3 lots) purchased midway that was not factored into the 2013 review.

Stock value : SGD 72,095
Dividends received : SGD 4,514
Cash injections : SGD 10,512
Total investible portfolio :  SGD 87,121

This does not include my very recent purchase of Super Group ~ SGD 11,320. I will probably settle this than contra it like I did the last time.

Made SGD 220 from first contra trade on Super Group

Bought 3 lots of Super Group at SGD 3.74 on Monday, and sold today for SGD 3.84. The cost factoring for commissions was SGD 11,259 while the proceeds was SGD 11,479, making it a gain of SGD 220. This is essentially picking coins in front of a steam roller. Whether I will do it again depends on how volatile the market remains over the next few weeks.

Super Group: My First Contra

Bought 3 lots of Super Group @ 3.75 with the no intention to settle, making it my first attempt at "contra". But I guess one problem is that I won't be in front of my computer on 26-27. This would make me slightly edgy!