Ask Me Any Question

Running out of ideas what to write, I will be glad to entertain any questions about stock investing at my email sgxstockpicker@gmail.com. Please do not ask me anything about technical analysis because i am not good with it.

My outlook for the remainder of the year, with 1 plus month left is that there is, I think 2.5% upside maximum (low probability), with higher chances of swings within a tight range as the fund managers try to make small change so that they can answer to their clients. I'm looking at the 2,850 being breached this year, but it is not sustainable.

For those who like me are sticking for the long term, you can start accumulating now as i strongly believe that there will be a bull run that will see the 3,000 mark breached by 30 June 2009. This is the extremely bullish scenario.

The good money is that next year will be most likely up a little year, hence dividend plays are a must if you want good returns as corporate earnings are most likely to return to pre-crisis levels with the exception of shipping and small cap manufacturing. Sectors that are likely to disappoint next year will be the vaguely defined "Green Energy" stocks. Traditional companies in the energy sector such as AusGroup and Rotary Engineering should benefit from the return of investments into the resource sector.

Do email me as i would like to help you improve your stock picking process.

Week 8: Etika, Biosensor Shine; Stratech Disappoints

Most of the results for the quarter are out. Etika and Biosensor shone with their good set of results. Etika's earnings has beat analyst forecast by 5-10% while Biosensors has shown excellent qoq performance. UOB-KayHian has also shown a very positive 9M09 but its shares have remained level around $1.40 plus. I am waiting for that CNY cheer when it should propose a good final dividend of at least 4.5 cents.

Stratech has on the other hand disappointed, with its very poor earnings. This stock has not have any good news flow since appearing on The Edge. Maybe the guy is just tooting his own horn. GMG Global has also struggled. It is a classic case of too many shares not enough earnings.

Elsewhere, Genting and ChinaMilk have also failed to perform. Genting shares have now moved past $1.10 mark as the opening of the casino looms nearer. ChinaMilk has on the other handplunged to the $0.31 mark but there are people betting on a turnaround and have started to accumulate.

2 stocks that you should look out for if you have a 3 months horizon are Yongnam Holdings and Oceanus. No doubt they are punter's favourite, but they also have good fundamentals. Yongnam will recognise more revenue from its IR project and the dividends should come in next year.

Oceanus' TDRs is its catalyst. No doubt that the market might have priced it in, there is still some potential in guessing whether the TDR will be listed at a premium or a discount. Due to its specualtive nature, small bets are in order.

Week 7: More Results Out

Was busy again at work having had to go out of office to followup on people. it was nonetheless a slightly fruitful week as i was kept busy and thus not having to look at stock quotes with the usual frequency.

STI 2,700 looks like a barrier that is in need of a convincing breakthrough. Overall portfolio looked anemic with TPV the only stock shining, breaching the $1.00 mark against the run of play. FJ Benjamin also got sold down to $0.30 level having released a set of 1Q10 results that can is expected of a retailer during these recessionary times.

China Milk is one stock i am glad that i have sold so much earlier. it is now slightly under $0.40 after posting a terrible quarter. it is neither doing well in the high margin bull semen nor the OEM milk. take profit if possible.

Week 6

Well. The STI corrected to below the 2,700 mark. I shan't talk about the portfolio at the moment, maybe next week when more results are out.

I am not sure if it is a good thing, but one of the counters I used to hold, China Milk Products, does not seem to have a good quarter again. Those still invested should try to look at its report quarterly. It seems that there has been further downwards adjustment to its inventories. Also the sales of milk are still facing teething problems. I guess with the shift to producing raw milk rather than semen, the high margins will slowly fade away. Interestingly, there is little discussion why there is a shift towards milk.

October ended slightly lower than the previous month. Against the previous three months, the index also ended slightly lower in October. With October out of the way, I think we can look forward to a decent rally through the end of the year.

GMG Global: All Spin No Action (yet?)

GMG Global, which i have 20 lots in, announced its 3Q09 results. it is in the favourite colour of Ris Low - red - for 9M09. this is unsurprising as the price of rubber has remained deflated compared to last year despite the slight rebound.

The stock price has been staying at 10-10.5 cents for the longest times. it is not that i think GMG is a lousy company. I think with sinochem as its substantial shareholder, there should not be any problem getting into markets in PRC or Africa, or for the matter the grander scheme of the PRC government resource grab.

what irks me is that the m&a has been touted as a buying point of the company to its literal death. if you do notice, companies that actually issue rights will say that it is for acquisition purposes only one time - the time when it issues the cash call. GMG on the other hand has reminded us again that it is still on the acquisition trail in its latest financial result.

I am not saying that such acquisitions won't happen. but by touting the fact that it might acquire some company twice in a row might show that it has a weak hand. Anecdotally, companies are usually hush when it comes to m&a. they tend to the let the share price do the talking and maybe let SGX query.

Either GMG's PR firm has run out of material to write for the press release or that the company is really negotiating to acquire a company, the smart money is that the cash call was meant to shore up balance sheet.

All the cash in GMG coffers comes mainly from the rights issue. for the same reason, i highly doubt that the company will announce any dividend for the coming full year. it will be a really long time for rubber prices to revert to last year high's. use oil prices as a guide in general. if you cannot stay with GMG for the long run, it is time to start looking elsewhere.