Friday, January 28, 2011

Readers Say Straits Times Index To Rise 10% For The Year (Updated)

I recently ran a poll asking readers where they think the market will head. This poll had gone crazy for a while but now the number of respondents have been ironed out. Here are the results, even though the poll is not due to close in 2 more days. Most of the the 21 readers who responded, feel that the Straits Times Index will rise more than 10% for the whole year. The median view is that the STI will only be up close to 10% meaning +/- 2.5%. The mean forecast for the STI is approximately 7.4% +/- 2.5%.  

It can be clearly observed that readers are generally bullish about the prospects of the local stock market. Even though there are not enough people polled, I would think that the market will perform below the median forecast. This would mean that the STI will perform down one range, namely the 5% +/- 2.5% segment. We have got a whole year to find out if that is accurate.

Over in the US, Kenneth Fisher thinks that 2011 will be a year that the US market trade sideways. In his January column, he says that there is a good mix of bulls and bears. The net result he believes will be a market that is caught in the middle. In his words,"In 2011 I expect the market to go sideways. There will be widening return dispersion around the averages by category and by stock."

Other stuff

I will only post my portfolio next Monday which is the end of the month coinciding with the last trading day. However, I would like to make some observations considering that the market has gotten interesting with some of the big players announcing results. Keppel Corp for one, announced a bonus issue of shares along with the consolidation of some of its property assets held under the umbrella grouping.

One corporate development that riled small investors was the proposed rights issue by Spicei2i. For those who remember, before the company got taken over by Dr Modi, the guy wearing hat and constantly on magazine covers, it had also conducted a rights issue. It was thus not surprising that investors dumped their shares at the fastest time available, sending it to historic lows.

Here are four good articles in case you have not read them:
Have a good weekend!

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