My Vietnam Trip to Ho Chi Minh City (13-16 December 2013)

I went to Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam with my girlfriend and friend over the recent weekend, coming back on the Monday evening. I flew in by Tiger and booked my hotel through agoda.com. A brief summary, with photos taken from the internet is as follows.

Friday 13 December 2013

I had web-checked in so I did not have to arrive at the airport that early. Nevertheless, I took my luggage to work heading straight to Changi Terminal 2 after a staggered half-day to catch my 1715 flight. 

The flight to Vietnam took about two hours and I reached the Tan Son Nhat Airport. My previous trip to Vietnam was slightly ruined because we got ripped off by the cab driver. He charged us 400,000 dong for a 250,000 dong trip (10,000 dong ~ USD 0.50). Determined not to get cheated this time, we ordered a cab from the Mai Linh Group but it still cost us 300,000 dong. The journey took about 1 hour plus due to traffic surge. Otherwise, it would have been a 30 minutes journey.

Smoother sailing?

I managed to get my MBA course for the coming school term and the new timetable offered a few more evening classes. However, I am still required to attend 12 seminars and 3 skills workshop and this would mean burning 7.5 more days of leave at least. The bright side is that I can afford to to use some leave in December to go for a holiday in Vietnam. 

On the investment front, Elite KSB distributed 6.6 cents per share as part of a capital reduction exercise. Today, it announced a trading halt and I think the company is either going to announce that somebody is taking it over, or that it is going to delist. Let us hope that the share price will jump up slightly.

A difficult 2013

2013 has been a difficult year for me. A good month was spent for military training gifted with the knowledge that there will be more to come. School (my masters programme) has been very underwhelming while I am overwhelmed at the work front. There is little expectations of a good increment. The upside is that my portfolio including free cash and dividends is up 7%.

Due to the lack of big blue chip stocks, my portfolio on a month-on-month basis has moved somewhat differently from the STI. There have been things that I said I would do, such as selling Noble Group and Wilmar, but I guess leaving under performing stocks in the portfolio gives me some room to grow for next year.

With two more months left, My focus will be building up my savings for emergencies as well as marriage. The stock market has yet to softened and this has left me few chances to buy in. Added to the fact, I have been preoccupied with so many things that I have nothing in mind. That is another story altogether.

A Tree has fallen

I live in Toa Payoh and recently, the neighbourhood's iconic tree fell. You can read the Straits Times' report for some of the background. I used to make small offering on my birthdays at my mother's request. My brother did that only not so long ago. I was thus taken aback when i read that it had fallen.

I discussed this "event" with a colleague who also stays nearby and we feel that the tree was one of those little things that made Toa Payoh unique. She added that the authorities have been a little slow with regard to trees. On reflection, the issue of trees is similar to that of crows and mynahs - issues that cross boundaries within the bureacracy.

Of course you can find more heritage tidbits here but the tree, along with the blue fountain in front of the library were what constitute my sense of the place. As we grow old, we yearn for some fixity in our environment. I guess as time passes, memories fade and a new feature will be built on the site.

Can healthcare be affordable when we are living longer?

My father recently suffered a heart attack and had to go for an operation to open up the constricted arteries using stents. I do not agree with some of the stuff that he eats but he leads quite an active lifestyle. a lot of walking here and there. The only downside is that he is a shift worker, so his sleeping patterns are affected. It was thus a shock when the doctor told me about what happened.

The bill was also another shocker. I had to go through some "financial  counselling" since I was the next-of-kin and the gross bill (operation plus ward before subsidies) came up to S$15,000. After deducting for government subsidies, the estimated bill came down to S$5,000 and the "financial counsellor told me that me this could be offset by insurance, medisave and other means (cold hard cash). The balance was a manageable amount and it will be likely fully covered by my father's company insurance.

My father is about statutory retirement age. The big question is, how is he going to pay for any future hospital stays should he suffer from another heart attack after his retirement? He has a few options such as paying from savings or Medisave; settling from private insurance; his children paying; and may be to sell his house. There are pros and cons to each option and I admit that I am not very clear how insurance can cover you after 65 or how Medisave can offset most of the medical bills.

But the depressing conclusion is that unless you have a big house, a lot of money or children, the older you get, healthcare will not be affordable. Upon retirement, while the range of diseases that may strike an individual increases, the individual's ability to pay, especially if you are less-than-average, diminishes rapidly. It reminds me of a saying I heard when I was young, that you are better off dead than sick in Singapore.

Petra Foods: What's Happening?

Petra Foods (I am invested) has seen a sharp decline in its share price, diverging from the Straits Times Index over the past month. Petra has sold of its ingredients business and this obtained approval at the end of June 2013. Dividends were slightly higher year-on-year but no special dividends have been announced with the sale and this probably has added to the selling pressure. Furthermore, as Petra announced its second quarter results, it also announced changes in key management, namely the CFO and COO.

I believe that the stock is attractive at current prices but I already hold a significant amount of stock relative to my portfolio. The upside is that its strategy is correct and special dividends are imminent. The downside is that all the information has been priced in (particularly in a bullish market) and that the stock trades thinly.

Will it be a Singapore bear market?

The Straits Times Index dipped below the 3,000 mark this week and that got me scrambling. Looking at the chart above, we see that compared to the peak 3 months ago, the Singapore benchmark lost 13%. Is this sudden plunge that will see us enter the bear market phase or is it just a correction? When compared to the S&P 500, the Singapore market has taken a battering. There are of course reasons for the strength in America's stock markets despite possibility of the tapering of QE3. However, I would strongly argue that the next three months are very crucial for those looking at the Singapore market. If  it is just a correction, we should see support at the 2,850 level before the market returns to an upward trend. if it is a bear market, we will see the 2,700 level being breached with a bottom most likely at the 2,500 level. We are unlikely to return to the March 2009 bottom because the fundamentals point towards a shaky recovery. 

Keep in mind that the Singapore property market (private and public) is effectively dead due to the measures implemented by the government. As it is we see private sales down to a trickle and cash-over-valuation premiums approaching zero. What happens next, I would speculate, people are taking their money out of their stock and shares to help cover for their loss of capital gains in property. The amount of money in the Singapore system is being reduced. I am currently accumulating cash and will consider entry into the market once the STI hits 2,700, with 2,500 being the trigger point. Based on my above projections, we should look at buying in at the start of December. Once that happens, I would suggest picking quality dividends paying blue chips as well as commodity stocks. This is a balanced approach.

Etika International: Possible big announcement

The share price of Etika cleared the 45 cents level, some 12.5% above its long time plateau of 40 cents, in a week mark by general market weakness. The graph above tells us two possibilities. One, it could be that the price is being pumped up before insiders cash in their options, or worse, a possible dilutive share issue. The cashing in of options has happened a few times although the price increase has not been that significant. Or two, it could be that there is a big announcement of either acquisition or buy in from a big player. These are speculation on my part but it is backed up by strong interest in the counter. I am invested in Etika so I naturally hope that it is positive news that will be announced some time next week. 

Cost and benefits of working in town

I moved recently to a new office in town near Lau Pa Sat from International Business Park, which is in Jurong East. My quality of life has changed drastically as a result of this move and it is meaningful to list out the costs and benefits:

1. Travelling time cut by half. It now takes me 30 minutes (door-to-door) to get to my new office compared to one hour one average. This means I save 1 hour each day. However, because I have class at NTU, it means there are times I may have to take a taxi down and it will costs $30.

2. I find it easier to meet people. As most of my friends work in the town area, there is a higher chance of me meeting them for a quick catch up or even a chance meeting compared to at Jurong. I find that this has helped me reconnect and with it, increase the number of opportunities that were previously hidden.

3. Food cost has gone up. One of the down side of a town location is that a simple lunch fare easily costs $5-6 compared to $4-5. When it rains, my food options get severely limited and the nearby food court costs me $8.


Overall, if I were not doing classes at NTU, working in town is probably one of the better options for most young adults because it helps you connect. I have worked in off center locations before and unless it is close to where you stay, you may be missing out on a lot. There are of course people who work in the yards (extreme west) or airports (extreme east) but these areas are clusters of expertise. 

When Financial Freedom? What will you be doing at 35?

There was some chatter in the financial blogosphere over an article about saving $100,000 by 30. I think if I try to count the money stuck between my sofa and my now abandoned pokemon collection, I should just have about that amount in cash and stock (personal and company). Even my girlfriend who is not yet 30 has that amount - mostly cash, stole a glance at the ATM - but I dare not accuse her of not paying for her food.

The $100,000 threshold by 30 was one week ago. This week,  although it was very busy for me, rushing through reports, I was visited by an old fear that I had when I was 25. That old fear was that at 35, burdened with a young family and big mortgage,  I would be not competitive enough in the labour market and consequently get replaced by someone younger and cheaper (though not necessarily foreign). 

Biosensors announces first dividend of USD 0.02 per share!

Thought of selling the stock but they just announced their first dividend. Based on today's closing price, yield is about 2.46% although there is still the concern of its bonds and R&D expenses.

S$50,000 capital invested level

With my purchase of 3 more lots of Petra Foods, the level of capital invested (i.e. income) has reached S$50,000 with a market value of about S$83,000. About 65% of the portfolio is into Food, and I have entertained the thought of selling off my loss-making stocks (FJ Benjamin, Noble and Wilmar) and hence there is an "Other" slice of 16% to be allocated. 

FJ Benjamin has not been booming as I had expected, since 2009. Noble Group and Wilmar are tanking for more fundamental reasons, namely the end of the commodity cycle. I could be wrong and there might be more upside when the market turns.

That said, with that money from selling, I could possible leave it in cash until the next market breakdown, buy more Etika or Super Group, or some banking stock. Option 2 will cause me to be very overweight in Food, and not much of a stock picker. For the banking stock, I am thinking of Hong Leong Finance. The problem is, the smaller "local" banks are being crowded out by the established "foreign" banks.

S$13,000 is quite a bit of money I can play around me. The search for my next stock is on.

5 years since graduation

It has been 5 years since I left the University. I spent 4 years in the Faculty of Arts and Social Science, with internship to my name, nor any exchange trip. I met some friends the past few months and they asked, if you could do it again, would you have done same major?

When is the time to sell Noble and Wilmar?

Both Noble Group and Wilmar have touched the 20% loss threshold  that I would prescribe as a cut loss point. That would mean taking a hit of S$2,300 and add on to the string of losses. The sale would also free up about S$9,000 for me to play around with.

It is an agonising decision to make because at least 3-4 years back, both companies were the best stocks to have and helped investors make a lot of money during the run up in commodity prices. Noble Group is now faced with a succession issue and hard commodity prices have seen a slump in prices. Wilmar Group also faces a stockpile of crude palm oil and possible backlash over the recent haze furore.

Here is one scenario that stops me from selling: what if when we are in a full blown bull market and commodity stocks make a comeback? That would mean me losing out on a good deal now. the antidote to this thinking would be that if I were to cut loss now, the money could be used for a set of stocks that too could benefit from the upswing.

Then the new question arises: which stock? My colleague commented that I play very safe with money in the food stocks. I guess she is not wrong. Even then, not all food stocks are created the same. I guess I will have to do some research the coming weeks.

Do S'porean workers deserve their wages?

This is a very thoughtful piece that I will come back to later. Edited to highlight points made by readers in response to HFK.

Jun 30, 2013

By Han Fook Kwang Managing Editor

That was the pointed question posed by a reader responding to a piece I wrote on how median wages had stagnated in recent years despite a growing economy (The Sunday Times, June 16).

He didn't think it was surprising because, to put it bluntly, that's what they deserve.

This was how he put it, which I'm quoting extensively because his perspective is worth airing even if it's painful to hear:

"Singapore's median income of $3,000 per month is fairly high if converted to local currencies of neighbouring countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, India and China. Does the average Singaporean worker deserve this premium?

Portfolio edges up 1.8 per cent (without dividends)

The portfolio grew 1.8% in value compared to the end of last year, excluding dividends.

Contra buy: 3 lots Petra Foods @ 3.60

I think the better term to use would be trading buy as I am trying to find ways to cough out the cash to settle for this position. Hoping it will do a "Super" and recover quickly to the SGD 4.00 level.

Made SGD 220 from first contra trade on Super Group

Bought 3 lots of Super Group at SGD 3.74 on Monday, and sold today for SGD 3.84. The cost factoring for commissions was SGD 11,259 while the proceeds was SGD 11,479, making it a gain of SGD 220. This is essentially picking coins in front of a steam roller. Whether I will do it again depends on how volatile the market remains over the next few weeks.

Super Group: My First Contra

Bought 3 lots of Super Group @ 3.75 with the no intention to settle, making it my first attempt at "contra". But I guess one problem is that I won't be in front of my computer on 26-27. This would make me slightly edgy! 

My Taiwan Trip (June 1-9)

Taipei 101

I went to Taiwan from June 1-9 with my girlfriend and visited Hualien and Taipei. I booked the Tiger Airways ticket way in advanced in February and for two persons and they cost me SGD 900 in total. This included hot meals and 20 kg baggage check-in to Taiwan, and 25 kg baggage check-in to Singapore. The Tiger Airways plane was a bit cramp for me. My friend who went Taiwan two weeks before recommended Scoot but said they charged quite a bit for booking.

The travel itinerary went like this:

Taipei Mainstation

June 1: Flew from Singapore's T2 to Taiwan's Tao Yuan International Airport 1. Took a bus to Taipei Main Station, from there a slow train (3 hours) to Hualien Station and a taxi to Jimei Home Stay (a min su), where I stayed there for 4 nights. The home stay was good (SGD 100 per night) and the only problem I had was that all the TV channels were local.

Biting the bullet on Noble Group and Wilmar

I will be going for a holiday from tomorrow onward and only be back on June 10. However, I am very tempted to sell off my stake in Noble Group and Wilmar International today and use the proceeds to increase my holdings of Petra. As mentioned earlier, I think that we are in the down cycle of the commodities boom and unless there are further acquisition targets or assets to be injected, it is time to close a chapter on this play. Although I have incurred an almost 20 per cent loss on the stock, cutting loss will be the better option. It seems that as the portfolio gets bigger, my appetite for "riskier" stocks has decreased because on an absolute basis, the fluctuations in portfolio value are nauseating.

Global Corporate Challenge - 10,000 steps a day

My company is part of the Global Corporate Challenge where in groups of seven, I am suppose to log the number of "steps" I make each day over a 16 period on to their website. The GCC Pulse (seen above) is a very high tech pedometer that was given as part of the challenge. The steps can come from everyday movement such as walking, jogging or even dancing. I guess the idea here is to get people off there chairs and continually moving. You are suppose to clock at least 10,000 steps each day. I suppose that is the minimum requirement for an active lifestyle.

And to make it interesting, you compete with other teams from other parts of the world and the total steps taken as a team will move you virtually from Rio de Janeiro, around the world. There are ways to cheat but that defeats the purposes of the challenge, that is to have a healthy lifestyle. Personally, I find it interesting to be able to log the number of "steps" I make each day and it so happens that the first day of the challenge was on the even of the Vesak Day. This would mean that the count for the day would no be representative of a typical office day. Furthermore, I will be going for holiday soon and that would mean more walking and less sitting around. I guess I will lose some weight and find correlation between the steps taken. What gets measured, gets managed.

If you company is not part of this Global Corporate Challenge, I suggest you highlight it to your management. I do not think it will come cheap give that it comes with a website and two GCC Pulse. But it is worth a shot.

Is the commodity boom over?

I took a look at my portfolio as was not happy with what I saw. Despite a strong run up on the Straits Times Index to close to 3,500, my stocks have not been moving likewise, particularly Noble Group and Wilmar International, which are down more than 10 per cent since I bought. My urge to sell stocks in the commodity sector is driven by the negative academic readings on the sector as a result of me preparing for my school essay. I guess the commodity super cycle has to end some where than continue in perpetuity. Perhaps I will also sell those stocks which are worth less than SGD 3,000 in total, to make the portfolio efficient. But I will have to come back to the issue of what stock I should buy, and this perplexes me a lot. Stay tuned.

Thoughts on the Singapore HDB market

The new house will only come at the end of 2016 although the date of legal possession is the end of 2017 based on advice gathered from the Internet forums on the HDB Singapore market.  So far, I have put down 5% in down payment and some stamp duty totaling about $50,000 and that is a material interest in the market.

Should you reveal your pay at the initial job interview?

I was having drinks with my colleagues and one of them shared the experience of a interview at a local statutory board. At the first interview, one of the two interviewers asked for my colleague's current salary. My colleague was very annoyed given that it was just the first round of interview and refused to reveal any figures. Although he felt good vibe coming from the non-probing interviewer due to his technical fit, my colleague was not offered the job.

Why do HR-types and recruitment consultants always ask about your pay? This is because they want to collect data to find out about the market rate (especially recruiters!) so they that the company can manage budgets as well as show their own bosses that they are not overpaying for their hires.

How to use up your old Singapore coins

In case you have not heard, the MAS will be phasing out the old coins and replacing them with the ones shown above. While depositing them into the bank would be one option, I think there might be a small charge on the total amount deposited (I could be wrong). I did think of giving away to kids on flag day but I realise this sight of physical money makes me more attached to it and reluctant to give it away. Perhaps I should withdraw my salary and pay everything in cash, I would save more.

As such, I have brought about SGD 80 worth of coins to the office, hoping to use them when possible. The dollar and 50 cents coin will be easy to use up but less so the 20, 10 and 5 cents denominations. Tentatively, my strategy to deal with this would be to pair every 2 dollar note with up to 1 dollar worth of coin. I know this sounds a bit crazy, but when you do realise how much coins you can accumulate, you will start becoming more conscious. 

Adsense income of SGD 131.25

After close to two years since the last payment, I received a SGD 131.25 from Google for the blog. I am not in this for the money but I think for all the things that I have written, that amount sure is pathetic compared to other bloggers! Perhaps, that is a reason why I am blogging less frequently.

Anyway, AGM season is coming to a close, meaning no more free food. More importantly, resolutions concerning dividend payment will be passed and most of us should be receiving payment later in May.

The portfolio fell close to 7 per cent month-on-month and on a year-to-date basis, I am flat. The way I am monitoring my portfolio, I cannot be sure which individual stocks have performed on a month-to-month basis. I guess I have to scout around the net for such an application.

Moving Office Location: Goodbye Jurong IBP

After close to 2.5 years there, my office will be shifting location from Jurong International Business Park, to somewhere in town, near the Marina Bay Sands Area. The move was expected after we had got acquired about two years ago. With the moving, it also marks the "disappearance" of my company from Singapore. I think I will take a bit more photos of the surrounding when I get to work later. I do not work at the 1A building shown above by the way!

Invest in plants to improve your workplace or home

I recently got caught up buying plants at the nursery near my place because I felt bored. Most of them have died but that will not deter me from having plants at my future home and office desk. The benefits of having plants at work and living spaces cannot be understated. According to this Daily Mail article, having potted plants at your desk, especially when you do not face a window, can help relieve stress. I can testify to the mental benefits of having greenery in front of you. Until recently, I had a small aquarium tank filled with plants and some small fish in the office  and I often find myself staring at it and feeling a sense of ease.

Not many thoughts on the stock market

Juggling between work, life, and two modules for Master's is really very time consuming. On the work side, the pressure is just piling up because instead of being able to update my report, I have been required to provide support for other team mates. This is not helped by the fact that I tend to be less disciplined in my research. On the social life front, it has been relatively quiet but I keep getting dragged out on the weekends and this leaves me tired and little time to catch up with other stuff. Classes are also taking up time because they just mean pushing back work time to prepare for proposals.

The stock market has not been bothering me though. Although the American market looks strong, the STI's gains has been modest with a lot of penny rotation. Month-on-month, my portfolio shed 2.3% to SGD 73,913 (inclusive of investable cash and dividends) compared to the 1.3% gain on the STI. Wilmar remains the leading loser of my holdings, currently at SGD 3.51 compared to the SGD 3.90 when I bought a stake.

At the macroeconomic front, there is a lot of bad news for Singapore in terms of exports and manufacturing output. Nevertheless, I think 2013 will be an up 10% year.

Portfolio down 3.7 per cent; weighed down by Wilmar

The portfolio lost 3.7 per cent month-on-month compared to the STI's haircur of 0.4 per cent. My portfolio was weighed heavily by big losses on Wilmar which I had bought at aound SGD 3.88.

It is again testing times for me as I face the challenge of juggling work with school and maintaining a normal fitness and social regime. For school, I am thinking of doing two modules instead of one. This is because I need to clear the modules quick so that I won't extend my stay in post grad. At work, I am tasked with new reports and there is a very sharp learning curve which I hope to overcome in the next two weeks. Hopefully the portfolio does not crumble due to the neglect.

This is worth a read

This piece by Kenneth Fisher is worth a read. He talks about why he thinks the bull run has still got legs and what are his US stock picks for 2013.

Separately, the share price of Wilmar has fallen 10 cents and this has caused me some regret as to why I did not buy Petra, which has risen by the same amount. 

Wilmar or Petra

I am going to work soon but by the end of the day, I might have two more lots of either Petra Foods or Wilmar International. If I were to buy Petra, I would overweight my position in one stock with limited price upside.  However, I would more or less get back some cash in the form of dividend (I think). For Wilmar, I foresee price upside but the question is how long must I wait and that there are no dividends (or very few) every half year.

Updated

I bought 2 lots of Wilmar at SGD 3.88 and that means about SGD 500 in free cash left.

End-January Update

I was way off in my prediction for the the Punngol East By election 2013. The Worker's Party Lee Lilian overcame the People's Action Party's Dr Koh Poh Koon by slightly more than 10% of total valid votes. That was not the reason I was away for a while. For the past 2-3 weeks, I was called away and thus could not find the time to blog my thoughts nor could I access terminals to make any investments.

Back on my computer and my spreadsheet for tracking returns, I was pleasantly surprised that my total portfolio (including cash of around SGD 8,303) increased 14% compared to the STI 4%. This was due largely to news that Sam Goi was on board Etika International and that the monies raised from the earlier placement would be used for expansion plan. Follow the money.

Stocks that have fallen into my radar are Wilmar International, RH Petrogas and SingPost. I see Wilmar International as a short term sentiment play. The consensus is that this is not a SGD 4.00 stock but somewhere close to SGD 5.00. It has taken quite a beating the past few months due to weaker-than-expected margins. RH Petrogas is a small and illiquid stock which markets itself as the only pure upstream stock on the SGX. I feel that there is upside for this stock to SGD 0.80 but it might just be due to slow bid up. SingPost, well, is just the usual dividend play.

Punggol East SMC By Election: PAP to Win

January 16 is Nomination Day for the Punggol East SMC By Election and Polling Day will be January 26. The Punggol East SMC was vacated after the incumbent PAP MP Michael Palmer admitted to an extra marital affair and resigned from his party.

Since then, the PAP announced early on that Dr Koh Poh Koon, a colorectal surgeon would be standing for this By Election. On January 14, the WP announced sales trainer Lee Lilian as its choice.

Although there has been intimations, neither the SDP nor the RP has announced their candidate. SDP had called for a "unity candidate" but that seems unlikely now. While RP's secretary-general Kenneth Jeyaretnam said that there was a "90% chance" of him entering the fray. Both parties have walked the ground in the recent few days since the snap polls were announced.

Why the PAP is likely to win

China Animal Healthcare A Spent Force?

China Animal Healthcare announced on December 21, 2012 that talks of its delisting from the Singapore Stock Exchange were in advance stages. Shortly after, on January 9, 2013, Blackstone Capital announced that it was redeeming the bonds issued by China Animal Healthcare. This would have to be settled within 6 months from notice.

Did Blackstone made a gain from its investment of about 3 years? Here are some concrete numbers:

SGD 8,303 buy what stock? (updated)

After going through the various savings account that I have, I think I might have enough to make a final purchase for 2013.

My current shortlist includes:

SGD 8,303 free cash for 2013

I have reset the portfolio prices for my sharejunction portfolio such they reflect all the latest sales and purchases, and the end-2012 prices. The stock portfolio on this basis is worth SGD 60,448. To ensure accurate monitoring the coming year, note that on the side, there is also SGD 8,303 in cash comprising the disposals as well as the eventual injection of about SGD 6,000 (to make up SGD 40,000 capital invested). How am I going to find another SGD 6,000 when I have to set aside cash for other items, is another question altogether.